Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon, with PAGASA forecasting 40% rain chances and mostly cloudy skies for Manila on August 20–21, is the dominant factor capping daytime maxima near seasonal norms. Enhanced moisture and frequent showers reduce incoming solar radiation, limiting peak heating compared to clearer conditions, while urban heat-island effects in Metro Manila still support readings in the low 30s °C. Model consensus and recent observations point to 31–33 °C as the most probable range, with the tight spread among market-implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty over exact cloud breaks versus sustained rainfall. Updated PAGASA guidance and any new low-pressure developments will be the key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月21日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
8月21日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
32°C 27%
33°C 24%
31°C 23%
30°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
26°C或以下
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
5%
30°C
15%
31°C
23%
32°C
27%
33°C
24%
34°C
3%
35°C
<1%
36°C或以上
<1%
32°C 27%
33°C 24%
31°C 23%
30°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
26°C或以下
$121 交易量
<1%
27°C
$176 交易量
1%
28°C
$33 交易量
2%
29°C
$6 交易量
5%
30°C
$0 交易量
15%
31°C
$0 交易量
23%
32°C
$9 交易量
27%
33°C
$0 交易量
24%
34°C
$50 交易量
3%
35°C
$0 交易量
<1%
36°C或以上
$7 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon, with PAGASA forecasting 40% rain chances and mostly cloudy skies for Manila on August 20–21, is the dominant factor capping daytime maxima near seasonal norms. Enhanced moisture and frequent showers reduce incoming solar radiation, limiting peak heating compared to clearer conditions, while urban heat-island effects in Metro Manila still support readings in the low 30s °C. Model consensus and recent observations point to 31–33 °C as the most probable range, with the tight spread among market-implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty over exact cloud breaks versus sustained rainfall. Updated PAGASA guidance and any new low-pressure developments will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$402結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon, with PAGASA forecasting 40% rain chances and mostly cloudy skies for Manila on August 20–21, is the dominant factor capping daytime maxima near seasonal norms. Enhanced moisture and frequent showers reduce incoming solar radiation, limiting peak heating compared to clearer conditions, while urban heat-island effects in Metro Manila still support readings in the low 30s °C. Model consensus and recent observations point to 31–33 °C as the most probable range, with the tight spread among market-implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty over exact cloud breaks versus sustained rainfall. Updated PAGASA guidance and any new low-pressure developments will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$402結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETPersistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon, with PAGASA forecasting 40% rain chances and mostly cloudy skies for Manila on August 20–21, is the dominant factor capping daytime maxima near seasonal norms. Enhanced moisture and frequent showers reduce incoming solar radiation, limiting peak heating compared to clearer conditions, while urban heat-island effects in Metro Manila still support readings in the low 30s °C. Model consensus and recent observations point to 31–33 °C as the most probable range, with the tight spread among market-implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty over exact cloud breaks versus sustained rainfall. Updated PAGASA guidance and any new low-pressure developments will be the key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions