Recent numerical weather prediction models, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System, show a stable high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean sustaining clear skies and moderate northerly flow across Istanbul. This setup favors daytime maxima clustered near 27–28°C on August 21, aligning with the market-implied probabilities of 48.5% for 27°C and 17% for 28°C. Long-term August climatology places average highs around 29°C, yet current short-range guidance has trended slightly cooler than earlier seasonal outlooks due to enhanced sea-breeze moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. Traders appear to weigh these consensus forecasts heavily, with lower probabilities assigned to 29°C+ outcomes pending the next model cycle and any shifts in 500 hPa heights.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於伊斯坦布爾8月21日的最高溫度？
伊斯坦布爾8月21日的最高溫度？
27°C 49%
26°C 22%
28°C 22%
25°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
22%
27°C
49%
28°C
18%
29°C
5%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 49%
26°C 22%
28°C 22%
25°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
22°C or below
$5 交易量
1%
23°C
$27 交易量
1%
24°C
$27 交易量
2%
25°C
$0 交易量
6%
26°C
$539 交易量
22%
27°C
$89 交易量
49%
28°C
$51 交易量
18%
29°C
$74 交易量
5%
30°C
$135 交易量
<1%
31°C
$27 交易量
<1%
32°C or higher
$34 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System, show a stable high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean sustaining clear skies and moderate northerly flow across Istanbul. This setup favors daytime maxima clustered near 27–28°C on August 21, aligning with the market-implied probabilities of 48.5% for 27°C and 17% for 28°C. Long-term August climatology places average highs around 29°C, yet current short-range guidance has trended slightly cooler than earlier seasonal outlooks due to enhanced sea-breeze moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. Traders appear to weigh these consensus forecasts heavily, with lower probabilities assigned to 29°C+ outcomes pending the next model cycle and any shifts in 500 hPa heights.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$1,008結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System, show a stable high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean sustaining clear skies and moderate northerly flow across Istanbul. This setup favors daytime maxima clustered near 27–28°C on August 21, aligning with the market-implied probabilities of 48.5% for 27°C and 17% for 28°C. Long-term August climatology places average highs around 29°C, yet current short-range guidance has trended slightly cooler than earlier seasonal outlooks due to enhanced sea-breeze moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. Traders appear to weigh these consensus forecasts heavily, with lower probabilities assigned to 29°C+ outcomes pending the next model cycle and any shifts in 500 hPa heights.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,008結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System, show a stable high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean sustaining clear skies and moderate northerly flow across Istanbul. This setup favors daytime maxima clustered near 27–28°C on August 21, aligning with the market-implied probabilities of 48.5% for 27°C and 17% for 28°C. Long-term August climatology places average highs around 29°C, yet current short-range guidance has trended slightly cooler than earlier seasonal outlooks due to enhanced sea-breeze moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. Traders appear to weigh these consensus forecasts heavily, with lower probabilities assigned to 29°C+ outcomes pending the next model cycle and any shifts in 500 hPa heights.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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