Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models have converged on a Warsaw high near 25–26°C for August 21, positioning these outcomes as market leaders with combined implied probabilities exceeding 70%. Persistent westerly flow of maritime air, combined with periods of cloud cover and light showers, is expected to limit daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing relative to clearer conditions. This aligns with climatological August averages of 22–23°C while reflecting modest warming from recent model runs. Traders are monitoring the next high-resolution updates and any shifts in steering patterns that could push temperatures to 27°C or higher, though current consensus keeps lower outcomes below 10% probability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月21日華沙的最高溫度？
8月21日華沙的最高溫度？
26°C 40%
25°C 33%
27°C 17%
24°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
8%
25°C
33%
26°C
40%
27°C
17%
28°C or higher
5%
26°C 40%
25°C 33%
27°C 17%
24°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
18°C or below
$482 交易量
<1%
19°C
$492 交易量
<1%
20°C
$292 交易量
<1%
21°C
$13 交易量
1%
22°C
$0 交易量
1%
23°C
$33 交易量
3%
24°C
$19 交易量
8%
25°C
$20 交易量
33%
26°C
$73 交易量
40%
27°C
$78 交易量
17%
28°C or higher
$8 交易量
5%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models have converged on a Warsaw high near 25–26°C for August 21, positioning these outcomes as market leaders with combined implied probabilities exceeding 70%. Persistent westerly flow of maritime air, combined with periods of cloud cover and light showers, is expected to limit daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing relative to clearer conditions. This aligns with climatological August averages of 22–23°C while reflecting modest warming from recent model runs. Traders are monitoring the next high-resolution updates and any shifts in steering patterns that could push temperatures to 27°C or higher, though current consensus keeps lower outcomes below 10% probability.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$1,494結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models have converged on a Warsaw high near 25–26°C for August 21, positioning these outcomes as market leaders with combined implied probabilities exceeding 70%. Persistent westerly flow of maritime air, combined with periods of cloud cover and light showers, is expected to limit daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing relative to clearer conditions. This aligns with climatological August averages of 22–23°C while reflecting modest warming from recent model runs. Traders are monitoring the next high-resolution updates and any shifts in steering patterns that could push temperatures to 27°C or higher, though current consensus keeps lower outcomes below 10% probability.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,494結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models have converged on a Warsaw high near 25–26°C for August 21, positioning these outcomes as market leaders with combined implied probabilities exceeding 70%. Persistent westerly flow of maritime air, combined with periods of cloud cover and light showers, is expected to limit daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing relative to clearer conditions. This aligns with climatological August averages of 22–23°C while reflecting modest warming from recent model runs. Traders are monitoring the next high-resolution updates and any shifts in steering patterns that could push temperatures to 27°C or higher, though current consensus keeps lower outcomes below 10% probability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions