**Wellington, New Zealand—widely recognized as the world’s windiest city due to its exposed position on the Cook Strait—has already recorded a peak gust of 168 km/h at Mt Kaukau during a strong southerly event on 23 August 2026.** This single episode, driven by a front bringing warm air from the Tasman Sea and tight pressure gradients, pushed recorded gusts far above the 104 km/h threshold that defines the dominant market outcome. Wellington’s climatology, shaped by the Roaring Forties and funneling through the strait, routinely produces gale-force conditions, with historical peaks often exceeding 150–200 km/h at elevated or exposed sites during winter and early spring. As of 29 August, with only a day or two left in the month and no stronger systems currently forecast, traders have priced the 104 km/h+ outcome at 99.9 % implied probability. The low-probability alternatives (93 km/h or below, or 94–103 km/h) would require either a redefinition of the measurement location or an unprecedented absence of further wind events. The main realistic challenges would be an official data revision showing the Mt Kaukau reading was not representative, or an extremely calm final 48 hours that somehow keeps the verified city-wide peak below 104 km/h—both highly improbable given the already-observed extreme and typical August variability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於104公里／小時或以上 99.8%
93公里/小時或以下 <1%
每小時94至103公里 <1%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
93公里/小時或以下
<1%
每小時94至103公里
<1%
104公里／小時或以上
100%
104公里／小時或以上 99.8%
93公里/小時或以下 <1%
每小時94至103公里 <1%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
93公里/小時或以下
$1,823 交易量
<1%
每小時94至103公里
$1,879 交易量
<1%
104公里／小時或以上
$3,706 交易量
100%
This market will resolve to the wind-gust range that contains the maximum wind gust, in km/h, recorded in any routine (METAR) or special (SPECI) observation from Wellington Airport (ICAO: NZWN) between August 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Wellington, New Zealand is widely recognized as the world's windiest city, and its airport regularly records powerful gusts that make headlines and viral landing videos worldwide.
The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range.
The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=8&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value.
If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.**Wellington, New Zealand—widely recognized as the world’s windiest city due to its exposed position on the Cook Strait—has already recorded a peak gust of 168 km/h at Mt Kaukau during a strong southerly event on 23 August 2026.** This single episode, driven by a front bringing warm air from the Tasman Sea and tight pressure gradients, pushed recorded gusts far above the 104 km/h threshold that defines the dominant market outcome. Wellington’s climatology, shaped by the Roaring Forties and funneling through the strait, routinely produces gale-force conditions, with historical peaks often exceeding 150–200 km/h at elevated or exposed sites during winter and early spring.
As of 29 August, with only a day or two left in the month and no stronger systems currently forecast, traders have priced the 104 km/h+ outcome at 99.9 % implied probability. The low-probability alternatives (93 km/h or below, or 94–103 km/h) would require either a redefinition of the measurement location or an unprecedented absence of further wind events. The main realistic challenges would be an official data revision showing the Mt Kaukau reading was not representative, or an extremely calm final 48 hours that somehow keeps the verified city-wide peak below 104 km/h—both highly improbable given the already-observed extreme and typical August variability.
This market will resolve to the wind-gust range that contains the maximum wind gust, in km/h, recorded in any routine (METAR) or special (SPECI) observation from Wellington Airport (ICAO: NZWN) between August 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Wellington, New Zealand is widely recognized as the world's windiest city, and its airport regularly records powerful gusts that make headlines and viral landing videos worldwide.
The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range.
The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=8&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value.
If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.
The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range.
The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=8&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value.
If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.
市場開放時間： Aug 21, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
交易量
$7,408結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 12:18 PM ETThis market will resolve to the wind-gust range that contains the maximum wind gust, in km/h, recorded in any routine (METAR) or special (SPECI) observation from Wellington Airport (ICAO: NZWN) between August 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Wellington, New Zealand is widely recognized as the world's windiest city, and its airport regularly records powerful gusts that make headlines and viral landing videos worldwide.
The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range.
The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=8&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value.
If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.**Wellington, New Zealand—widely recognized as the world’s windiest city due to its exposed position on the Cook Strait—has already recorded a peak gust of 168 km/h at Mt Kaukau during a strong southerly event on 23 August 2026.** This single episode, driven by a front bringing warm air from the Tasman Sea and tight pressure gradients, pushed recorded gusts far above the 104 km/h threshold that defines the dominant market outcome. Wellington’s climatology, shaped by the Roaring Forties and funneling through the strait, routinely produces gale-force conditions, with historical peaks often exceeding 150–200 km/h at elevated or exposed sites during winter and early spring.
As of 29 August, with only a day or two left in the month and no stronger systems currently forecast, traders have priced the 104 km/h+ outcome at 99.9 % implied probability. The low-probability alternatives (93 km/h or below, or 94–103 km/h) would require either a redefinition of the measurement location or an unprecedented absence of further wind events. The main realistic challenges would be an official data revision showing the Mt Kaukau reading was not representative, or an extremely calm final 48 hours that somehow keeps the verified city-wide peak below 104 km/h—both highly improbable given the already-observed extreme and typical August variability.
This market will resolve to the wind-gust range that contains the maximum wind gust, in km/h, recorded in any routine (METAR) or special (SPECI) observation from Wellington Airport (ICAO: NZWN) between August 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Wellington, New Zealand is widely recognized as the world's windiest city, and its airport regularly records powerful gusts that make headlines and viral landing videos worldwide.
The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range.
The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=8&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value.
If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.
The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range.
The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=8&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value.
If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.
交易量
$7,408結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 12:18 PM ET**Wellington, New Zealand—widely recognized as the world’s windiest city due to its exposed position on the Cook Strait—has already recorded a peak gust of 168 km/h at Mt Kaukau during a strong southerly event on 23 August 2026.** This single episode, driven by a front bringing warm air from the Tasman Sea and tight pressure gradients, pushed recorded gusts far above the 104 km/h threshold that defines the dominant market outcome. Wellington’s climatology, shaped by the Roaring Forties and funneling through the strait, routinely produces gale-force conditions, with historical peaks often exceeding 150–200 km/h at elevated or exposed sites during winter and early spring. As of 29 August, with only a day or two left in the month and no stronger systems currently forecast, traders have priced the 104 km/h+ outcome at 99.9 % implied probability. The low-probability alternatives (93 km/h or below, or 94–103 km/h) would require either a redefinition of the measurement location or an unprecedented absence of further wind events. The main realistic challenges would be an official data revision showing the Mt Kaukau reading was not representative, or an extremely calm final 48 hours that somehow keeps the verified city-wide peak below 104 km/h—both highly improbable given the already-observed extreme and typical August variability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions