The Virginia Supreme Court's May 8 ruling struck down the voter-approved constitutional amendment on procedural grounds, nullifying Democratic efforts to enact a new congressional map outside the standard decennial process. This decision, upheld after the U.S. Supreme Court denied emergency relief on May 15, preserves the existing district lines used in 2022 and 2024 for the November 2026 midterms. Traders assign a 95.5 percent probability to the new map not being used because these binding judicial outcomes remove the legal pathway for mid-decade redistricting by the General Assembly. Remaining scenarios that could shift the outcome remain narrow, such as an unexpected successful rehearing or legislative workaround before election deadlines, though both face significant constitutional and timing barriers.