Trader consensus around a 62.5 percent probability for "Nothing" in the March resolution window reflects the absence of qualifying high-impact events through late March. Routine electoral processes, including parliamentary votes in Colombia and Nepal plus leadership transitions abroad, occurred without triggering major escalations, new conflicts, or systemic disruptions. U.S. domestic activity centered on ongoing legislative priorities and localized demonstrations that stayed within expected bounds. With resolution tied to specific criteria such as fresh military confrontations or economic shocks, the market pricing captures the prevailing pattern of contained developments rather than abrupt global shifts.