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icon for 2026年的藍色浪潮？
政治·國會

2026年的藍色浪潮？

icon for 2026年的藍色浪潮？
政治·國會

2026年的藍色浪潮？

是

74% 機率
Polymarket

$43,195 交易量

是

74% 機率
Polymarket

$43,195 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a 74% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as holding 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-2026 midterms—driven by sustained leads on the generic congressional ballot averaging 5-10 points in recent CNN/SSRS, Harvard CAPS/Harris, and Emerson polls. President Trump's approval has slipped to 34-40% amid Post-ABC-Ipsos and Pew surveys showing record-high disapproval, fueling anti-incumbent sentiment akin to 2018's opposition surge. Democrats overperformed in April-May special elections in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan battlegrounds, bolstering momentum against Republicans' slim majorities. Historical midterm patterns disadvantage the president's party, with primaries through summer potentially clarifying competitive races in swing states ahead of November.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
交易量
$43,195
結束日期
2026-11-30
市場開放時間
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a 74% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as holding 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-2026 midterms—driven by sustained leads on the generic congressional ballot averaging 5-10 points in recent CNN/SSRS, Harvard CAPS/Harris, and Emerson polls. President Trump's approval has slipped to 34-40% amid Post-ABC-Ipsos and Pew surveys showing record-high disapproval, fueling anti-incumbent sentiment akin to 2018's opposition surge. Democrats overperformed in April-May special elections in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan battlegrounds, bolstering momentum against Republicans' slim majorities. Historical midterm patterns disadvantage the president's party, with primaries through summer potentially clarifying competitive races in swing states ahead of November.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
交易量
$43,195
結束日期
2026-11-30
市場開放時間
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年的藍色浪潮？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026 年藍色浪潮？" at 74%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年的藍色浪潮？" has generated $43.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年的藍色浪潮？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年的藍色浪潮？" is "2026 年藍色浪潮？" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年的藍色浪潮？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.