Traders see a near tie between two and three ChatGPT outage days in May 2026 at 37% and 35% implied probability because OpenAI’s large language model infrastructure has shown typical monthly downtime of that range amid rapid scaling and high user demand. Recent stability after earlier maintenance windows and traffic spikes has kept expectations moderate, while ongoing investments in redundant servers and AI safety monitoring reduce the chance of extended disruptions. Key differentiators include the timing of feature updates that can temporarily strain capacity versus the company’s expanding data center network, which historically limits most incidents to brief periods. With the month past mid-point, any new surge in usage or rollout delay could still tip the balance toward four or more days.