Recent analyses from PitchBook and OpenAI’s CFO signal that the company’s target of an IPO in late 2026 now appears unattainable amid heavy infrastructure spending, projected $14 billion losses this year, and missed revenue and user-growth milestones. These pressures, combined with ongoing litigation and the need to stabilize operations following April’s record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, have shifted trader consensus toward no public listing by the December 31, 2026 deadline. While the completed restructuring and Microsoft partnership update have clarified governance, the scale of required capital and competitive dynamics in the large language model space continue to favor a mid-to-late 2027 window, keeping smaller market-cap outcomes priced at single-digit implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年12月31日前未進行IPO 68%
1.5 兆美元以上 8.1%
1.25 兆–1.5 兆 3.7%
5,000–7,500億 3.5%
$1,638,863 交易量
$1,638,863 交易量
2026-06-30
低於 5000 億
1%
5,000–7,500億
3%
7,500 億–1 兆
2%
1 兆–1.25 兆
3%
1.25 兆–1.5 兆
4%
1.5 兆美元以上
8%
2026年12月31日前未進行IPO
68%
2026年12月31日前未進行IPO 68%
1.5 兆美元以上 8.1%
1.25 兆–1.5 兆 3.7%
5,000–7,500億 3.5%
$1,638,863 交易量
$1,638,863 交易量
2026-06-30
低於 5000 億
$266,170 交易量
1%
5,000–7,500億
$146,331 交易量
3%
7,500 億–1 兆
$141,042 交易量
2%
1 兆–1.25 兆
$182,625 交易量
3%
1.25 兆–1.5 兆
$496,517 交易量
4%
1.5 兆美元以上
$101,032 交易量
8%
2026年12月31日前未進行IPO
$305,147 交易量
68%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Recent analyses from PitchBook and OpenAI’s CFO signal that the company’s target of an IPO in late 2026 now appears unattainable amid heavy infrastructure spending, projected $14 billion losses this year, and missed revenue and user-growth milestones. These pressures, combined with ongoing litigation and the need to stabilize operations following April’s record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, have shifted trader consensus toward no public listing by the December 31, 2026 deadline. While the completed restructuring and Microsoft partnership update have clarified governance, the scale of required capital and competitive dynamics in the large language model space continue to favor a mid-to-late 2027 window, keeping smaller market-cap outcomes priced at single-digit implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,638,863結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Recent analyses from PitchBook and OpenAI’s CFO signal that the company’s target of an IPO in late 2026 now appears unattainable amid heavy infrastructure spending, projected $14 billion losses this year, and missed revenue and user-growth milestones. These pressures, combined with ongoing litigation and the need to stabilize operations following April’s record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, have shifted trader consensus toward no public listing by the December 31, 2026 deadline. While the completed restructuring and Microsoft partnership update have clarified governance, the scale of required capital and competitive dynamics in the large language model space continue to favor a mid-to-late 2027 window, keeping smaller market-cap outcomes priced at single-digit implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,638,863結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent analyses from PitchBook and OpenAI’s CFO signal that the company’s target of an IPO in late 2026 now appears unattainable amid heavy infrastructure spending, projected $14 billion losses this year, and missed revenue and user-growth milestones. These pressures, combined with ongoing litigation and the need to stabilize operations following April’s record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, have shifted trader consensus toward no public listing by the December 31, 2026 deadline. While the completed restructuring and Microsoft partnership update have clarified governance, the scale of required capital and competitive dynamics in the large language model space continue to favor a mid-to-late 2027 window, keeping smaller market-cap outcomes priced at single-digit implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions