The market-implied odds strongly favoring no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, stem primarily from the company's March 2026 close of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, which supplies ample capital to sustain large language model development and infrastructure scaling without public-market disclosure requirements. Recent headwinds include an ongoing lawsuit with Elon Musk, missed internal revenue targets, and CFO Sarah Friar’s public comments that OpenAI is not yet structured for public-company operations. Revised partnership terms with Microsoft and continued heavy losses further reduce near-term pressure for an IPO, even as the company prepares informally for a possible late-2026 listing. Traders are pricing in these barriers while noting that any resolution of litigation or acceleration in revenue could still shift timelines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年12月31日前未進行IPO 69%
1.5 兆美元以上 8.7%
1.25 兆–1.5 兆 3.7%
5,000–7,500億 3.5%
$1,638,883 交易量
$1,638,883 交易量
2026-06-30
低於 5000 億
1%
5,000–7,500億
3%
7,500 億–1 兆
2%
1 兆–1.25 兆
3%
1.25 兆–1.5 兆
4%
1.5 兆美元以上
9%
2026年12月31日前未進行IPO
69%
2026年12月31日前未進行IPO 69%
1.5 兆美元以上 8.7%
1.25 兆–1.5 兆 3.7%
5,000–7,500億 3.5%
$1,638,883 交易量
$1,638,883 交易量
2026-06-30
低於 5000 億
$266,170 交易量
1%
5,000–7,500億
$146,331 交易量
3%
7,500 億–1 兆
$141,047 交易量
2%
1 兆–1.25 兆
$182,630 交易量
3%
1.25 兆–1.5 兆
$496,527 交易量
4%
1.5 兆美元以上
$101,032 交易量
9%
2026年12月31日前未進行IPO
$305,188 交易量
69%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.The market-implied odds strongly favoring no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, stem primarily from the company's March 2026 close of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, which supplies ample capital to sustain large language model development and infrastructure scaling without public-market disclosure requirements. Recent headwinds include an ongoing lawsuit with Elon Musk, missed internal revenue targets, and CFO Sarah Friar’s public comments that OpenAI is not yet structured for public-company operations. Revised partnership terms with Microsoft and continued heavy losses further reduce near-term pressure for an IPO, even as the company prepares informally for a possible late-2026 listing. Traders are pricing in these barriers while noting that any resolution of litigation or acceleration in revenue could still shift timelines.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,638,883結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.The market-implied odds strongly favoring no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, stem primarily from the company's March 2026 close of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, which supplies ample capital to sustain large language model development and infrastructure scaling without public-market disclosure requirements. Recent headwinds include an ongoing lawsuit with Elon Musk, missed internal revenue targets, and CFO Sarah Friar’s public comments that OpenAI is not yet structured for public-company operations. Revised partnership terms with Microsoft and continued heavy losses further reduce near-term pressure for an IPO, even as the company prepares informally for a possible late-2026 listing. Traders are pricing in these barriers while noting that any resolution of litigation or acceleration in revenue could still shift timelines.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,638,883結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market-implied odds strongly favoring no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, stem primarily from the company's March 2026 close of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, which supplies ample capital to sustain large language model development and infrastructure scaling without public-market disclosure requirements. Recent headwinds include an ongoing lawsuit with Elon Musk, missed internal revenue targets, and CFO Sarah Friar’s public comments that OpenAI is not yet structured for public-company operations. Revised partnership terms with Microsoft and continued heavy losses further reduce near-term pressure for an IPO, even as the company prepares informally for a possible late-2026 listing. Traders are pricing in these barriers while noting that any resolution of litigation or acceleration in revenue could still shift timelines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions