**Gary Sulz, the incumbent mayor since 2018, leads the market at 69.5% as the only established candidate with a proven track record of decisive victories, including 75.3% in 2022.** Aaron Orlando, an incumbent councillor who publicly declared his mayoral bid in July 2026, sits at 24% as the primary challenger. Nicole Cherlet, Sulz’s 2022 opponent, trades at just 2.1%, reflecting limited expectations she will run again. Multiple unnamed or potential candidates remain at 50%, consistent with the pre-nomination window. The October 17, 2026, first-past-the-post election features a short formal campaign period beginning September 19 after nominations close on September 11. Sulz’s position draws from sustained community visibility, prior electoral margins, and the structural advantages typical for BC municipal incumbents. Orlando’s entry introduces competition focused on local priorities such as amenities and connectivity, yet remains early-stage without broad field development. No other high-profile declarations or major shifts have altered the consensus in the weeks since Orlando’s announcement.