Google's Gemini model family currently anchors trader sentiment at 57% implied probability for second place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard, reflecting recent capability gains in mathematical reasoning benchmarks that have narrowed the gap with Anthropic's top overall models. Multiple labs clustered near 50% highlight tight competition among proprietary systems, where incremental updates to reasoning chains, benchmark-specific fine-tuning, and inference optimizations can rapidly shift Elo ratings. With resolution just weeks away, traders are watching for any late-August model drops or leaderboard recalibrations that could reorder the math category without altering broader text performance. Lower odds on OpenAI, DeepSeek, and others underscore the specialized nature of this arena versus general leaderboards.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於谷歌 56%
阿里巴巴 24.6%
Anthropic 8%
OpenAI 3.9%
$34,677 交易量
$34,677 交易量
2026-08-31
谷歌
56%
阿里巴巴
25%
Anthropic
8%
OpenAI
4%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
百度
<1%
Meta
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
微軟
<1%
小米
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
美團
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
Mistral
<1%
騰訊
<1%
StepFun
<1%
谷歌 56%
阿里巴巴 24.6%
Anthropic 8%
OpenAI 3.9%
$34,677 交易量
$34,677 交易量
2026-08-31
谷歌
$11,560 交易量
56%
阿里巴巴
$2,813 交易量
25%
Anthropic
$7,099 交易量
8%
OpenAI
$1,359 交易量
4%
DeepSeek
$895 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$893 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$698 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$871 交易量
1%
百度
$954 交易量
<1%
Meta
$1,271 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$777 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$777 交易量
<1%
微軟
$667 交易量
<1%
小米
$504 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$500 交易量
<1%
美團
$709 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$556 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$482 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$715 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$577 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Gemini model family currently anchors trader sentiment at 57% implied probability for second place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard, reflecting recent capability gains in mathematical reasoning benchmarks that have narrowed the gap with Anthropic's top overall models. Multiple labs clustered near 50% highlight tight competition among proprietary systems, where incremental updates to reasoning chains, benchmark-specific fine-tuning, and inference optimizations can rapidly shift Elo ratings. With resolution just weeks away, traders are watching for any late-August model drops or leaderboard recalibrations that could reorder the math category without altering broader text performance. Lower odds on OpenAI, DeepSeek, and others underscore the specialized nature of this arena versus general leaderboards.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Jul 20, 2026, 8:43 PM ET
交易量
$34,677結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 8:43 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Gemini model family currently anchors trader sentiment at 57% implied probability for second place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard, reflecting recent capability gains in mathematical reasoning benchmarks that have narrowed the gap with Anthropic's top overall models. Multiple labs clustered near 50% highlight tight competition among proprietary systems, where incremental updates to reasoning chains, benchmark-specific fine-tuning, and inference optimizations can rapidly shift Elo ratings. With resolution just weeks away, traders are watching for any late-August model drops or leaderboard recalibrations that could reorder the math category without altering broader text performance. Lower odds on OpenAI, DeepSeek, and others underscore the specialized nature of this arena versus general leaderboards.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$34,677結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 8:43 PM ETGoogle's Gemini model family currently anchors trader sentiment at 57% implied probability for second place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard, reflecting recent capability gains in mathematical reasoning benchmarks that have narrowed the gap with Anthropic's top overall models. Multiple labs clustered near 50% highlight tight competition among proprietary systems, where incremental updates to reasoning chains, benchmark-specific fine-tuning, and inference optimizations can rapidly shift Elo ratings. With resolution just weeks away, traders are watching for any late-August model drops or leaderboard recalibrations that could reorder the math category without altering broader text performance. Lower odds on OpenAI, DeepSeek, and others underscore the specialized nature of this arena versus general leaderboards.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions