Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, anchors the 96.7% market-implied odds by leading multiple September 2026 leaderboards including BenchAlign, HLE, and agentic indexes with scores around 84.6 and 65%, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and other frontier models. Verified benchmark results and Anthropic's internal data showing Claude handling 26% of its own R&D work have reinforced trader consensus on its current edge in reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities. With resolution just days away, a late competitor release or independent benchmark revision could still alter the outcome, though no such developments appear imminent.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 96.6%
Meta 1.8%
Google 1.1%
OpenAI 1.0%
$107,512 交易量
$107,512 交易量
2026-09-30
Anthropic
97%
Meta
2%
1%
OpenAI
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
百度
<1%
小米
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
美團
<1%
Mistral
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
騰訊
<1%
StepFun
<1%
微軟
<1%
Anthropic 96.6%
Meta 1.8%
Google 1.1%
OpenAI 1.0%
$107,512 交易量
$107,512 交易量
2026-09-30
Anthropic
$46,518 交易量
97%
Meta
$10,854 交易量
2%
$6,057 交易量
1%
OpenAI
$12,424 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$3,511 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$5,004 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$3,229 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,872 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$4,223 交易量
<1%
百度
$769 交易量
<1%
小米
$1,250 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$436 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$436 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$1,313 交易量
<1%
美團
$930 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,554 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$436 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$920 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$2,658 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$1,360 交易量
<1%
微軟
$762 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, anchors the 96.7% market-implied odds by leading multiple September 2026 leaderboards including BenchAlign, HLE, and agentic indexes with scores around 84.6 and 65%, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and other frontier models. Verified benchmark results and Anthropic's internal data showing Claude handling 26% of its own R&D work have reinforced trader consensus on its current edge in reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities. With resolution just days away, a late competitor release or independent benchmark revision could still alter the outcome, though no such developments appear imminent.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
交易量
$107,512結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, anchors the 96.7% market-implied odds by leading multiple September 2026 leaderboards including BenchAlign, HLE, and agentic indexes with scores around 84.6 and 65%, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and other frontier models. Verified benchmark results and Anthropic's internal data showing Claude handling 26% of its own R&D work have reinforced trader consensus on its current edge in reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities. With resolution just days away, a late competitor release or independent benchmark revision could still alter the outcome, though no such developments appear imminent.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$107,512結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETAnthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, anchors the 96.7% market-implied odds by leading multiple September 2026 leaderboards including BenchAlign, HLE, and agentic indexes with scores around 84.6 and 65%, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and other frontier models. Verified benchmark results and Anthropic's internal data showing Claude handling 26% of its own R&D work have reinforced trader consensus on its current edge in reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities. With resolution just days away, a late competitor release or independent benchmark revision could still alter the outcome, though no such developments appear imminent.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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