Skip to main content
icon for 克勞德會在九月的__天下山嗎?

克勞德會在九月的__天下山嗎?

icon for 克勞德會在九月的__天下山嗎?

克勞德會在九月的__天下山嗎?

8-10 35%

11-13 33%

5-7 20%

14+ 8%

Polymarket
最新

8-10 35%

11-13 33%

5-7 20%

14+ 8%

Polymarket
最新

少於 5 次

$179 交易量

4%

5-7

$5 交易量

20%

8-10

$105 交易量

35%

11-13

$213 交易量

33%

14+

$93 交易量

8%

This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent frequent outages at Anthropic, including a three-hour upstream cloud provider disruption on August 28 affecting Claude Code and Cowork plus multiple model errors on August 24 impacting Opus 5, Fable 5, and others, underscore ongoing infrastructure strain from rapid demand growth. Traders see 8–13 downtime days as most likely in September because scaling challenges persist across the Claude API, claude.ai, and agentic tools despite high 90-day uptime figures near 99%. Competitive pressure from other large language models heightens the stakes for reliability, while dependence on external providers and peak-load spikes create uncertainty that could shift outcomes depending on any capacity additions or unexpected maintenance.

This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
交易量
$596
結束日期
2026-09-30
市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent frequent outages at Anthropic, including a three-hour upstream cloud provider disruption on August 28 affecting Claude Code and Cowork plus multiple model errors on August 24 impacting Opus 5, Fable 5, and others, underscore ongoing infrastructure strain from rapid demand growth. Traders see 8–13 downtime days as most likely in September because scaling challenges persist across the Claude API, claude.ai, and agentic tools despite high 90-day uptime figures near 99%. Competitive pressure from other large language models heightens the stakes for reliability, while dependence on external providers and peak-load spikes create uncertainty that could shift outcomes depending on any capacity additions or unexpected maintenance.

This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
交易量
$596
結束日期
2026-09-30
市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"克勞德會在九月的__天下山嗎?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "8-10" at 35%, followed by "11-13" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"克勞德會在九月的__天下山嗎?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "克勞德會在九月的__天下山嗎?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "克勞德會在九月的__天下山嗎?" is "8-10" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "11-13" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "克勞德會在九月的__天下山嗎?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.