Recent frequent outages at Anthropic, including a three-hour upstream cloud provider disruption on August 28 affecting Claude Code and Cowork plus multiple model errors on August 24 impacting Opus 5, Fable 5, and others, underscore ongoing infrastructure strain from rapid demand growth. Traders see 8–13 downtime days as most likely in September because scaling challenges persist across the Claude API, claude.ai, and agentic tools despite high 90-day uptime figures near 99%. Competitive pressure from other large language models heightens the stakes for reliability, while dependence on external providers and peak-load spikes create uncertainty that could shift outcomes depending on any capacity additions or unexpected maintenance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8-10 35%
11-13 33%
5-7 20%
14+ 8%
少於 5 次
4%
5-7
20%
8-10
35%
11-13
33%
14+
8%
8-10 35%
11-13 33%
5-7 20%
14+ 8%
少於 5 次
4%
5-7
20%
8-10
35%
11-13
33%
14+
8%
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
市場開放時間: Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Recent frequent outages at Anthropic, including a three-hour upstream cloud provider disruption on August 28 affecting Claude Code and Cowork plus multiple model errors on August 24 impacting Opus 5, Fable 5, and others, underscore ongoing infrastructure strain from rapid demand growth. Traders see 8–13 downtime days as most likely in September because scaling challenges persist across the Claude API, claude.ai, and agentic tools despite high 90-day uptime figures near 99%. Competitive pressure from other large language models heightens the stakes for reliability, while dependence on external providers and peak-load spikes create uncertainty that could shift outcomes depending on any capacity additions or unexpected maintenance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於



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