The high market-implied probability that President Trump will not issue an executive order mandating federal review of new AI model releases by May 31 stems primarily from the administration’s rapid retreat from earlier May discussions of oversight. After initial reports of a proposed working group and pre-release vetting process surfaced around May 4, White House officials quickly distanced themselves within days, emphasizing voluntary safety-testing agreements already signed with Google, Microsoft, and xAI instead of binding requirements. This shift aligns with Trump’s longstanding preference for a light-touch federal framework that preempts state rules while avoiding new regulatory hurdles for frontier AI developers. With no further announcements or legislative momentum in the past week and only two weeks remaining, traders see little catalyst for a last-minute order.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$63,584 交易量
$63,584 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$63,584 交易量
$63,584 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.
Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.
Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high market-implied probability that President Trump will not issue an executive order mandating federal review of new AI model releases by May 31 stems primarily from the administration’s rapid retreat from earlier May discussions of oversight. After initial reports of a proposed working group and pre-release vetting process surfaced around May 4, White House officials quickly distanced themselves within days, emphasizing voluntary safety-testing agreements already signed with Google, Microsoft, and xAI instead of binding requirements. This shift aligns with Trump’s longstanding preference for a light-touch federal framework that preempts state rules while avoiding new regulatory hurdles for frontier AI developers. With no further announcements or legislative momentum in the past week and only two weeks remaining, traders see little catalyst for a last-minute order.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.
Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.
Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.
Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.
Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
交易量
$63,584結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.
Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.
Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high market-implied probability that President Trump will not issue an executive order mandating federal review of new AI model releases by May 31 stems primarily from the administration’s rapid retreat from earlier May discussions of oversight. After initial reports of a proposed working group and pre-release vetting process surfaced around May 4, White House officials quickly distanced themselves within days, emphasizing voluntary safety-testing agreements already signed with Google, Microsoft, and xAI instead of binding requirements. This shift aligns with Trump’s longstanding preference for a light-touch federal framework that preempts state rules while avoiding new regulatory hurdles for frontier AI developers. With no further announcements or legislative momentum in the past week and only two weeks remaining, traders see little catalyst for a last-minute order.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.
Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.
Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.
Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.
Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$63,584結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high market-implied probability that President Trump will not issue an executive order mandating federal review of new AI model releases by May 31 stems primarily from the administration’s rapid retreat from earlier May discussions of oversight. After initial reports of a proposed working group and pre-release vetting process surfaced around May 4, White House officials quickly distanced themselves within days, emphasizing voluntary safety-testing agreements already signed with Google, Microsoft, and xAI instead of binding requirements. This shift aligns with Trump’s longstanding preference for a light-touch federal framework that preempts state rules while avoiding new regulatory hurdles for frontier AI developers. With no further announcements or legislative momentum in the past week and only two weeks remaining, traders see little catalyst for a last-minute order.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions