This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and June 30, 2026, PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ukraine's constitution prohibits presidential and parliamentary elections during martial law, imposed since Russia's 2022 invasion and extended by the Verkhovna Rada until August 2, 2026, via bills passed April 28 amid ongoing mobilization needs. President Zelenskyy reiterated in February that votes require a ceasefire and security guarantees, aligning with public sentiment where 59% favor postponement and the Central Election Commission mandates six months post-martial law for preparations. International pressure, including from Washington for polls by mid-May, has been rebuffed, with no snap election announced. Traders watch for war de-escalation signals or the next 90-day extension vote around early August, which could further delay prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and June 30, 2026, PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and June 30, 2026, PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ukraine's constitution prohibits presidential and parliamentary elections during martial law, imposed since Russia's 2022 invasion and extended by the Verkhovna Rada until August 2, 2026, via bills passed April 28 amid ongoing mobilization needs. President Zelenskyy reiterated in February that votes require a ceasefire and security guarantees, aligning with public sentiment where 59% favor postponement and the Central Election Commission mandates six months post-martial law for preparations. International pressure, including from Washington for polls by mid-May, has been rebuffed, with no snap election announced. Traders watch for war de-escalation signals or the next 90-day extension vote around early August, which could further delay prospects.
Orbán steps back after a landslide loss, vowing to rebuild Hungary’s ‘national side’
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%
Following a significant election loss in Hungary, Orbán announced he would not take his parliamentary seat, reflecting political shifts in the region but no Ukrainian election developments, sustaining market uncertainty about Ukraine’s 2025 elections.
Apr 12 2026
Hungary sets April 12 election date as Orbán faces tough challenge
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Hungary scheduled its parliamentary election for April 12, 2026, indicating regional political activity but no Ukrainian election scheduling, maintaining market doubts about Ukraine’s 2025 elections.
Mar 1 2026
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy pursues more arms deals with allies against Russia
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%4%
Zelenskyy’s efforts to secure more arms amid ongoing Russian attacks and no election scheduling reinforced market skepticism about elections occurring in 2025.
Feb 14 2026
Trump administration's 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan presented to Zelenskyy
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
The Trump administration presented a peace plan requiring Ukraine to hold elections after the war, but with significant concessions and no election scheduled within 2025, the market reacted with uncertainty about elections occurring in 2025.
Feb 13 2026
Zelenskyy says US security agreement for Ukraine is '100% ready' to be signed
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%4%
President Zelenskyy announced a US security guarantees document is ready for signing after talks involving Ukraine, US, and Russia, but no election scheduling was confirmed, maintaining market uncertainty about 2025 elections.
Feb 6 2026
Ukrainian delegation arrives in US for peace talks amid Russian attacks on energy sites
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
A Ukrainian delegation led by President Zelenskyy's chief of staff arrived in the US to discuss peace agreement details, highlighting ongoing conflict and instability that likely delayed elections. This reinforced market doubts about elections occurring in 2025.
Jan 20 2026
Next round of Ukraine-Russia-U.S. peace talks scheduled for February in Abu Dhabi
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
Peace talks were postponed to early February, with ongoing disagreements over territory and security guarantees, maintaining uncertainty over election timing and contributing to market price drops for June 30, 2026 outcome.
Jan 15 2026
Ukraine's political instability and war conditions reduce chances of 2025 elections
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%15%
Political rivalries, corruption scandals, and ongoing war conditions continued to undermine prospects for elections within the market's resolution window, pushing prices to new lows.
Jan 8 2026
Russia intensifies drone and missile attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure
December 31, 2026 dips to 38%4%
Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles targeting Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure, worsening humanitarian conditions and complicating prospects for elections within 2025, leading to market price declines for election outcomes.
Dec 15 2025
Ukraine's Zelenskyy appoints new chief of staff amid corruption scandal
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%6%
President Zelenskyy appointed military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov as chief of staff to focus on security and peace talks, reflecting internal political challenges and impacting market confidence in timely elections.
Dec 10 2025
Ukraine and U.S. negotiate peace plan including elections after war
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%6%
President Zelenskyy announced a 20-point peace plan negotiated with the U.S. that includes holding elections after the war ends, implying elections would not occur in 2025. This reduced market confidence in elections by June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026.
Dec 1 2025
Ukraine faces ongoing war and political pressure delaying elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 44%3%
Continued Russian attacks and internal political crises, including corruption scandals and leadership challenges, sustained uncertainty about election timing. This prolonged the market's downward trend on election likelihood within 2025.
Nov 21 2025
U.S.-led peace talks in Abu Dhabi involving Ukraine, Russia, and U.S. officials
December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%11%
Trilateral talks aimed at ending the war included discussions on ceasefire and security guarantees, but no agreement on elections timing was reached, contributing to market uncertainty and price volatility for December 31, 2026 outcome.
Nov 20 2025
Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy faces mounting pressure amid corruption scandal
December 31, 2026 drops to 47%7%
President Zelenskyy struggled to contain fallout from a $100 million corruption scandal implicating top officials, weakening political stability and reducing confidence in holding elections in 2025. This contributed to further price declines for election outcomes in 2025.
Nov 13 2025
Ukraine President Zelenskyy discusses peace plan including elections after war
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
Zelenskyy outlined a 20-point peace plan with the U.S. that includes holding elections after the war ends, indicating elections would not occur during 2025. This reinforced market expectations that elections would be delayed beyond the market's resolution window, lowering prices for both outcomes.
Sep 24 2025
Ukraine’s ex-army chief reveals rift with President Zelenskyy amid war
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s former army chief and political rival to President Zelenskyy, publicly disclosed tensions and a political rift, signaling internal instability during wartime. This raised doubts about the government's ability to hold elections in 2025, impacting market prices for June 30, 2026 outcome.
Sep 24 2025
Ukraine's presidential and parliamentary elections postponed due to martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Martial law in Ukraine, triggered by Russia's invasion, indefinitely postponed national elections originally scheduled for spring 2024, casting doubt on elections occurring within 2025 and affecting market prices for June 30, 2026 outcome.
Sep 24 2025
Ukraine's former army chief reveals rift with President Zelenskyy amid war and political tensions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ex-army chief and potential political rival to Zelenskyy, publicly disclosed tensions and a political rift, highlighting internal instability. This raised doubts about Ukraine's political cohesion and the likelihood of elections during ongoing conflict, impacting market prices for June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and June 30, 2026, PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ukraine's constitution prohibits presidential and parliamentary elections during martial law, imposed since Russia's 2022 invasion and extended by the Verkhovna Rada until August 2, 2026, via bills passed April 28 amid ongoing mobilization needs. President Zelenskyy reiterated in February that votes require a ceasefire and security guarantees, aligning with public sentiment where 59% favor postponement and the Central Election Commission mandates six months post-martial law for preparations. International pressure, including from Washington for polls by mid-May, has been rebuffed, with no snap election announced. Traders watch for war de-escalation signals or the next 90-day extension vote around early August, which could further delay prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and June 30, 2026, PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and June 30, 2026, PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ukraine's constitution prohibits presidential and parliamentary elections during martial law, imposed since Russia's 2022 invasion and extended by the Verkhovna Rada until August 2, 2026, via bills passed April 28 amid ongoing mobilization needs. President Zelenskyy reiterated in February that votes require a ceasefire and security guarantees, aligning with public sentiment where 59% favor postponement and the Central Election Commission mandates six months post-martial law for preparations. International pressure, including from Washington for polls by mid-May, has been rebuffed, with no snap election announced. Traders watch for war de-escalation signals or the next 90-day extension vote around early August, which could further delay prospects.
Orbán steps back after a landslide loss, vowing to rebuild Hungary’s ‘national side’
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%
Following a significant election loss in Hungary, Orbán announced he would not take his parliamentary seat, reflecting political shifts in the region but no Ukrainian election developments, sustaining market uncertainty about Ukraine’s 2025 elections.
Apr 12 2026
Hungary sets April 12 election date as Orbán faces tough challenge
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Hungary scheduled its parliamentary election for April 12, 2026, indicating regional political activity but no Ukrainian election scheduling, maintaining market doubts about Ukraine’s 2025 elections.
Mar 1 2026
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy pursues more arms deals with allies against Russia
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%4%
Zelenskyy’s efforts to secure more arms amid ongoing Russian attacks and no election scheduling reinforced market skepticism about elections occurring in 2025.
Feb 14 2026
Trump administration's 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan presented to Zelenskyy
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
The Trump administration presented a peace plan requiring Ukraine to hold elections after the war, but with significant concessions and no election scheduled within 2025, the market reacted with uncertainty about elections occurring in 2025.
Feb 13 2026
Zelenskyy says US security agreement for Ukraine is '100% ready' to be signed
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%4%
President Zelenskyy announced a US security guarantees document is ready for signing after talks involving Ukraine, US, and Russia, but no election scheduling was confirmed, maintaining market uncertainty about 2025 elections.
Feb 6 2026
Ukrainian delegation arrives in US for peace talks amid Russian attacks on energy sites
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
A Ukrainian delegation led by President Zelenskyy's chief of staff arrived in the US to discuss peace agreement details, highlighting ongoing conflict and instability that likely delayed elections. This reinforced market doubts about elections occurring in 2025.
Jan 20 2026
Next round of Ukraine-Russia-U.S. peace talks scheduled for February in Abu Dhabi
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
Peace talks were postponed to early February, with ongoing disagreements over territory and security guarantees, maintaining uncertainty over election timing and contributing to market price drops for June 30, 2026 outcome.
Jan 15 2026
Ukraine's political instability and war conditions reduce chances of 2025 elections
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%15%
Political rivalries, corruption scandals, and ongoing war conditions continued to undermine prospects for elections within the market's resolution window, pushing prices to new lows.
Jan 8 2026
Russia intensifies drone and missile attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure
December 31, 2026 dips to 38%4%
Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles targeting Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure, worsening humanitarian conditions and complicating prospects for elections within 2025, leading to market price declines for election outcomes.
Dec 15 2025
Ukraine's Zelenskyy appoints new chief of staff amid corruption scandal
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%6%
President Zelenskyy appointed military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov as chief of staff to focus on security and peace talks, reflecting internal political challenges and impacting market confidence in timely elections.
Dec 10 2025
Ukraine and U.S. negotiate peace plan including elections after war
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%6%
President Zelenskyy announced a 20-point peace plan negotiated with the U.S. that includes holding elections after the war ends, implying elections would not occur in 2025. This reduced market confidence in elections by June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026.
Dec 1 2025
Ukraine faces ongoing war and political pressure delaying elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 44%3%
Continued Russian attacks and internal political crises, including corruption scandals and leadership challenges, sustained uncertainty about election timing. This prolonged the market's downward trend on election likelihood within 2025.
Nov 21 2025
U.S.-led peace talks in Abu Dhabi involving Ukraine, Russia, and U.S. officials
December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%11%
Trilateral talks aimed at ending the war included discussions on ceasefire and security guarantees, but no agreement on elections timing was reached, contributing to market uncertainty and price volatility for December 31, 2026 outcome.
Nov 20 2025
Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy faces mounting pressure amid corruption scandal
December 31, 2026 drops to 47%7%
President Zelenskyy struggled to contain fallout from a $100 million corruption scandal implicating top officials, weakening political stability and reducing confidence in holding elections in 2025. This contributed to further price declines for election outcomes in 2025.
Nov 13 2025
Ukraine President Zelenskyy discusses peace plan including elections after war
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
Zelenskyy outlined a 20-point peace plan with the U.S. that includes holding elections after the war ends, indicating elections would not occur during 2025. This reinforced market expectations that elections would be delayed beyond the market's resolution window, lowering prices for both outcomes.
Sep 24 2025
Ukraine’s ex-army chief reveals rift with President Zelenskyy amid war
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s former army chief and political rival to President Zelenskyy, publicly disclosed tensions and a political rift, signaling internal instability during wartime. This raised doubts about the government's ability to hold elections in 2025, impacting market prices for June 30, 2026 outcome.
Sep 24 2025
Ukraine's presidential and parliamentary elections postponed due to martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Martial law in Ukraine, triggered by Russia's invasion, indefinitely postponed national elections originally scheduled for spring 2024, casting doubt on elections occurring within 2025 and affecting market prices for June 30, 2026 outcome.
Sep 24 2025
Ukraine's former army chief reveals rift with President Zelenskyy amid war and political tensions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 28%23%
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ex-army chief and potential political rival to Zelenskyy, publicly disclosed tensions and a political rift, highlighting internal instability. This raised doubts about Ukraine's political cohesion and the likelihood of elections during ongoing conflict, impacting market prices for June 30, 2026.
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions
"烏克蘭選舉由...舉行？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年12月31日" at 22%, followed by "2026年6月30日" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "烏克蘭選舉由...舉行？" has generated $2.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 14, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "烏克蘭選舉由...舉行？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "烏克蘭選舉由...舉行？" is "2026年12月31日" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2026年6月30日" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "烏克蘭選舉由...舉行？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "烏克蘭選舉由...舉行？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $2.4 million traded on “烏克蘭選舉由...舉行？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "烏克蘭選舉由...舉行？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 22¢ for "2026年12月31日" in the "烏克蘭選舉由...舉行？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 22% chance that "2026年12月31日" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 22¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 78¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "烏克蘭選舉由...舉行？" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.
The "烏克蘭選舉由...舉行？" market has an active community of 51 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "烏克蘭選舉由...舉行？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions