Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services deficit holding near $57–60 billion through early 2026, with year-to-date narrowing relative to the prior period driven by tariff-induced import restraint and modest export gains in energy and services. The 2025 full-year shortfall settled at $901 billion, and CBO projections indicate further compression as imports grow more slowly than exports amid dollar depreciation and supply-chain adjustments. Trader focus remains split between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion brackets because outcomes hinge on whether tariff pass-through sustains import weakness, whether retaliatory measures curb U.S. exports, and how fiscal stimulus influences overall demand. Stronger-than-expected capital-goods inflows tied to data-center investment or any easing of trade measures could push the annual total above 1 trillion, while accelerated domestic substitution or global growth slowdowns would favor the lower band.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$20,984 交易量
$20,984 交易量
2027-02-28
少於5000億
7%
5000–6000億
6%
6,000–7,000億
5%
7000億–8000億
10%
8,000億–9,000億
44%
9,000億–1兆
31%
1兆–1.1兆
9%
1.1兆以上
5%
$20,984 交易量
$20,984 交易量
2027-02-28
少於5000億
$16,636 交易量
7%
5000–6000億
$413 交易量
6%
6,000–7,000億
$435 交易量
5%
7000億–8000億
$455 交易量
10%
8,000億–9,000億
$1,008 交易量
44%
9,000億–1兆
$971 交易量
31%
1兆–1.1兆
$441 交易量
9%
1.1兆以上
$624 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services deficit holding near $57–60 billion through early 2026, with year-to-date narrowing relative to the prior period driven by tariff-induced import restraint and modest export gains in energy and services. The 2025 full-year shortfall settled at $901 billion, and CBO projections indicate further compression as imports grow more slowly than exports amid dollar depreciation and supply-chain adjustments. Trader focus remains split between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion brackets because outcomes hinge on whether tariff pass-through sustains import weakness, whether retaliatory measures curb U.S. exports, and how fiscal stimulus influences overall demand. Stronger-than-expected capital-goods inflows tied to data-center investment or any easing of trade measures could push the annual total above 1 trillion, while accelerated domestic substitution or global growth slowdowns would favor the lower band.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$20,984結束日期
2027-02-28市場開放時間
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services deficit holding near $57–60 billion through early 2026, with year-to-date narrowing relative to the prior period driven by tariff-induced import restraint and modest export gains in energy and services. The 2025 full-year shortfall settled at $901 billion, and CBO projections indicate further compression as imports grow more slowly than exports amid dollar depreciation and supply-chain adjustments. Trader focus remains split between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion brackets because outcomes hinge on whether tariff pass-through sustains import weakness, whether retaliatory measures curb U.S. exports, and how fiscal stimulus influences overall demand. Stronger-than-expected capital-goods inflows tied to data-center investment or any easing of trade measures could push the annual total above 1 trillion, while accelerated domestic substitution or global growth slowdowns would favor the lower band.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
交易量
$20,984結束日期
2027-02-28市場開放時間
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services deficit holding near $57–60 billion through early 2026, with year-to-date narrowing relative to the prior period driven by tariff-induced import restraint and modest export gains in energy and services. The 2025 full-year shortfall settled at $901 billion, and CBO projections indicate further compression as imports grow more slowly than exports amid dollar depreciation and supply-chain adjustments. Trader focus remains split between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion brackets because outcomes hinge on whether tariff pass-through sustains import weakness, whether retaliatory measures curb U.S. exports, and how fiscal stimulus influences overall demand. Stronger-than-expected capital-goods inflows tied to data-center investment or any easing of trade measures could push the annual total above 1 trillion, while accelerated domestic substitution or global growth slowdowns would favor the lower band.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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