Recent high-level diplomatic engagement between US President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has sustained channels for managing tensions over Taiwan, trade, and technology, supporting trader consensus that a direct military clash remains improbable before 2027. Ongoing efforts to extend trade truces and address supply-chain disputes reflect both sides' preference for calibrated competition rather than armed confrontation. While PLA activities around Taiwan and US arms support continue, deterrence enhancements and economic interdependence create substantial barriers to escalation. The current implied probability aligns with historical patterns where miscalculation risks have been contained through dialogue, though unforeseen incidents or policy shifts could still introduce volatility within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$113,155 交易量
$113,155 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$113,155 交易量
$113,155 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent high-level diplomatic engagement between US President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has sustained channels for managing tensions over Taiwan, trade, and technology, supporting trader consensus that a direct military clash remains improbable before 2027. Ongoing efforts to extend trade truces and address supply-chain disputes reflect both sides' preference for calibrated competition rather than armed confrontation. While PLA activities around Taiwan and US arms support continue, deterrence enhancements and economic interdependence create substantial barriers to escalation. The current implied probability aligns with historical patterns where miscalculation risks have been contained through dialogue, though unforeseen incidents or policy shifts could still introduce volatility within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$113,155結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent high-level diplomatic engagement between US President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has sustained channels for managing tensions over Taiwan, trade, and technology, supporting trader consensus that a direct military clash remains improbable before 2027. Ongoing efforts to extend trade truces and address supply-chain disputes reflect both sides' preference for calibrated competition rather than armed confrontation. While PLA activities around Taiwan and US arms support continue, deterrence enhancements and economic interdependence create substantial barriers to escalation. The current implied probability aligns with historical patterns where miscalculation risks have been contained through dialogue, though unforeseen incidents or policy shifts could still introduce volatility within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$113,155結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent high-level diplomatic engagement between US President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has sustained channels for managing tensions over Taiwan, trade, and technology, supporting trader consensus that a direct military clash remains improbable before 2027. Ongoing efforts to extend trade truces and address supply-chain disputes reflect both sides' preference for calibrated competition rather than armed confrontation. While PLA activities around Taiwan and US arms support continue, deterrence enhancements and economic interdependence create substantial barriers to escalation. The current implied probability aligns with historical patterns where miscalculation risks have been contained through dialogue, though unforeseen incidents or policy shifts could still introduce volatility within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions