Persistent deadlock in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, marked by Moscow's insistence on territorial concessions and Ukraine's rejection of those terms, underpins trader consensus that no Zelenskyy-Putin meeting will occur before 2027. Recent US envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv in early September produced no breakthroughs, with the Kremlin stating on September 21 that talks remain stalled and reiterating demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from claimed areas. Russia has rejected proposed leader-level encounters at venues such as the G20, limiting any direct summit to Moscow. Ongoing battlefield advances and winter escalation risks further reduce prospects for rapid diplomatic resolution. A verifiable ceasefire framework or major shift in territorial positions could still alter this outlook before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Kremlin rejects Zelenskyy's offer to meet Putin at G20 Miami summit, insists talks must be in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 rises to 93%3%
The Kremlin publicly rejected the idea of Putin meeting Zelenskyy at the G20 summit in Miami, insisting any talks must take place in Moscow, which reinforced market skepticism about a meeting outside Russia and contributed to the decline in probabilities for the US venue and rise in 'No meeting before 2027'.
Kremlin rejects Miami as venue for Zelenskyy-Putin talks, insists on Moscow
The Kremlin officially rejected Zelenskyy's proposal to meet Putin at the G20 summit in Miami, calling it impossible and insisting any talks must be held in Moscow. This stance diminished the likelihood of a meeting outside Russia before 2027.


















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