Recent releases of OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series have solidified its position at the top of most intelligence and agentic benchmarks, driving traders to assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability for second place. Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or tie on coding-specific evaluations such as SWE-bench and long-context reasoning tasks, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in developer adoption metrics while remaining competitive on multimodal capabilities. No major model updates from any lab have emerged in the past week, leaving the current leaderboard stability intact through the end of June window. Traders are watching for any surprise capability jumps or benchmark shifts that could alter the tight cluster among the top four frontier labs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 72%
Google 15%
OpenAI 9.4%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 交易量
$400,986 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
72%
15%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
微軟
1%
Meta
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
美團
<1%
百度
<1%
Mistral
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Anthropic 72%
Google 15%
OpenAI 9.4%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 交易量
$400,986 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$14,717 交易量
72%
$5,648 交易量
15%
OpenAI
$34,207 交易量
9%
xAI
$14,892 交易量
3%
DeepSeek
$249,054 交易量
1%
微軟
$5,685 交易量
1%
Meta
$4,186 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$6,636 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$4,922 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$9,323 交易量
<1%
美團
$34,087 交易量
<1%
百度
$4,429 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$5,557 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$2,909 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$4,734 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases of OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series have solidified its position at the top of most intelligence and agentic benchmarks, driving traders to assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability for second place. Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or tie on coding-specific evaluations such as SWE-bench and long-context reasoning tasks, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in developer adoption metrics while remaining competitive on multimodal capabilities. No major model updates from any lab have emerged in the past week, leaving the current leaderboard stability intact through the end of June window. Traders are watching for any surprise capability jumps or benchmark shifts that could alter the tight cluster among the top four frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$400,986結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases of OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series have solidified its position at the top of most intelligence and agentic benchmarks, driving traders to assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability for second place. Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or tie on coding-specific evaluations such as SWE-bench and long-context reasoning tasks, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in developer adoption metrics while remaining competitive on multimodal capabilities. No major model updates from any lab have emerged in the past week, leaving the current leaderboard stability intact through the end of June window. Traders are watching for any surprise capability jumps or benchmark shifts that could alter the tight cluster among the top four frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$400,986結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent releases of OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series have solidified its position at the top of most intelligence and agentic benchmarks, driving traders to assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability for second place. Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or tie on coding-specific evaluations such as SWE-bench and long-context reasoning tasks, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in developer adoption metrics while remaining competitive on multimodal capabilities. No major model updates from any lab have emerged in the past week, leaving the current leaderboard stability intact through the end of June window. Traders are watching for any surprise capability jumps or benchmark shifts that could alter the tight cluster among the top four frontier labs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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