Anthropic’s recent Claude releases, including Opus 4.8 and the newly launched Fable 5 in early June 2026, have driven the 96.5% market-implied odds by topping coding-specific benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, Code Arena ratings, and agentic task evaluations. These models demonstrate superior performance in multi-file refactoring, long-context reasoning, and reliable code generation compared with OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants or other competitors. Trader consensus reflects this established lead in developer tooling ecosystems like Cursor. A credible new model release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before month-end could still narrow the gap, though current verified capabilities make such an upset unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 96.5%
OpenAI 2.0%
Z.ai <1%
Alibaba <1%
$69,353 交易量
$69,353 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
97%
OpenAI
2%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
<1%
<1%
xAI
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 96.5%
OpenAI 2.0%
Z.ai <1%
Alibaba <1%
$69,353 交易量
$69,353 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$9,957 交易量
97%
OpenAI
$8,884 交易量
2%
Z.ai
$8,297 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$5,774 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$5,820 交易量
<1%
$6,945 交易量
<1%
xAI
$8,462 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$3,593 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$5,779 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$1,844 交易量
<1%
Meta
$747 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$868 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$894 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$633 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$870 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent Claude releases, including Opus 4.8 and the newly launched Fable 5 in early June 2026, have driven the 96.5% market-implied odds by topping coding-specific benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, Code Arena ratings, and agentic task evaluations. These models demonstrate superior performance in multi-file refactoring, long-context reasoning, and reliable code generation compared with OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants or other competitors. Trader consensus reflects this established lead in developer tooling ecosystems like Cursor. A credible new model release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before month-end could still narrow the gap, though current verified capabilities make such an upset unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： May 26, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
交易量
$69,353結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
May 26, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent Claude releases, including Opus 4.8 and the newly launched Fable 5 in early June 2026, have driven the 96.5% market-implied odds by topping coding-specific benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, Code Arena ratings, and agentic task evaluations. These models demonstrate superior performance in multi-file refactoring, long-context reasoning, and reliable code generation compared with OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants or other competitors. Trader consensus reflects this established lead in developer tooling ecosystems like Cursor. A credible new model release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before month-end could still narrow the gap, though current verified capabilities make such an upset unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$69,353結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
May 26, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude releases, including Opus 4.8 and the newly launched Fable 5 in early June 2026, have driven the 96.5% market-implied odds by topping coding-specific benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, Code Arena ratings, and agentic task evaluations. These models demonstrate superior performance in multi-file refactoring, long-context reasoning, and reliable code generation compared with OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants or other competitors. Trader consensus reflects this established lead in developer tooling ecosystems like Cursor. A credible new model release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before month-end could still narrow the gap, though current verified capabilities make such an upset unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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