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政治·總裁

以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？

icon for 以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？
政治·總裁

以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？

安迪·貝希爾 29%

加文·紐森 19.7%

皮特·布塔朱吉 13%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 13%

Polymarket
最新

安迪·貝希爾 29%

加文·紐森 19.7%

皮特·布塔朱吉 13%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 13%

Polymarket
最新

安迪·貝希爾

$1,880 交易量

29%

加文·紐森

$2,758 交易量

20%

皮特·布塔朱吉

$580 交易量

13%

卡馬拉·哈里斯

$504 交易量

13%

羅·卡納

$383 交易量

9%

Rahm Emanuel

$512 交易量

8%

喬什·夏皮羅

$306 交易量

4%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特茲

$391 交易量

3%

喬恩·奧索夫

$306 交易量

2%

Jon Stewart

$364 交易量

<1%

史蒂芬·A·史密斯

$284 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No Democrat has formally announced a 2028 presidential bid as of early August 2026, leaving the “Other” outcome at 50% and underscoring the early, fluid stage of the cycle. Governors Andy Beshear and Gavin Newsom lead named options after public comments signaling openness—Beshear noting he may run again and Newsom confirming he would consider a bid post-midterms—while Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and others such as Ro Khanna and Josh Shapiro have appeared at events and in polls that keep their profiles elevated. Recent state-level surveys and media appearances have shifted attention among these figures without producing commitments, and traders appear to price the field as wide open ahead of scheduled 2026 midterms and any subsequent announcements.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$8,270
結束日期
2027-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No Democrat has formally announced a 2028 presidential bid as of early August 2026, leaving the “Other” outcome at 50% and underscoring the early, fluid stage of the cycle. Governors Andy Beshear and Gavin Newsom lead named options after public comments signaling openness—Beshear noting he may run again and Newsom confirming he would consider a bid post-midterms—while Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and others such as Ro Khanna and Josh Shapiro have appeared at events and in polls that keep their profiles elevated. Recent state-level surveys and media appearances have shifted attention among these figures without producing commitments, and traders appear to price the field as wide open ahead of scheduled 2026 midterms and any subsequent announcements.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$8,270
結束日期
2027-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "安迪·貝希爾" at 28%, followed by "加文·紐森" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？" is "安迪·貝希爾" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "加文·紐森" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.