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icon for 在6月30日之前,任何AI模型都會達到___整體競技場分數嗎?

在6月30日之前,任何AI模型都會達到___整體競技場分數嗎?

icon for 在6月30日之前,任何AI模型都會達到___整體競技場分數嗎?

在6月30日之前,任何AI模型都會達到___整體競技場分數嗎?

$16,798 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$16,798 交易量

Polymarket

1510

$6,981 交易量

26%

1520

$2,307 交易量

20%

1530

$7,511 交易量

13%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases of frontier models including OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 have driven the strongest gains on crowdsourced leaderboards such as LMSYS Chatbot Arena, with top Elo ratings now clustering in the low-to-mid 1500s. These updates delivered measurable lifts in reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, tightening competition among OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google while open-source entries like DeepSeek continue to close the gap on efficiency metrics. Traders are watching for any additional capability jumps or fine-tuning announcements before the June 30 cutoff, as even modest benchmark improvements could push a model across the targeted Overall Arena Score threshold.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$16,798
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases of frontier models including OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 have driven the strongest gains on crowdsourced leaderboards such as LMSYS Chatbot Arena, with top Elo ratings now clustering in the low-to-mid 1500s. These updates delivered measurable lifts in reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, tightening competition among OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google while open-source entries like DeepSeek continue to close the gap on efficiency metrics. Traders are watching for any additional capability jumps or fine-tuning announcements before the June 30 cutoff, as even modest benchmark improvements could push a model across the targeted Overall Arena Score threshold.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$16,798
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"在6月30日之前,任何AI模型都會達到___整體競技場分數嗎?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1510" at 26%, followed by "1520" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "在6月30日之前,任何AI模型都會達到___整體競技場分數嗎?" has generated $16.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "在6月30日之前,任何AI模型都會達到___整體競技場分數嗎?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "在6月30日之前,任何AI模型都會達到___整體競技場分數嗎?" is "1510" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1520" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "在6月30日之前,任何AI模型都會達到___整體競技場分數嗎?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.