SpaceX's detailed IPO preparations, including a confidential SEC filing and a targeted roadshow launch in early June 2026, anchor the market's 99.2% implied probability that it will list before OpenAI. The company has outlined retail investor allocations and aims for a multibillion-dollar raise at a valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion, reflecting operational momentum in launch cadence and revenue growth. In contrast, OpenAI faces internal calls from its CFO to postpone any offering until 2027 amid concerns over spending levels, financial reporting readiness, and ongoing legal pressures. While near-term catalysts like regulatory approvals or earnings visibility could accelerate timelines for either firm, realistic risks such as extended SEC reviews or macroeconomic shifts remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before year-end.