Super Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 5 system with sustained winds near 155–160 mph and central pressure around 920 hPa in the western Pacific east of Wake Island, drives the closely balanced market odds. Its rapid intensification over warm waters has produced a well-defined eye, yet the storm faces a long northwestward track toward Asia that typically allows substantial weakening from increased wind shear, cooler sea-surface temperatures, and possible eyewall replacement cycles before any landfall. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency highlights model spread in both steering patterns and intensity forecasts, with historical analogs showing many super typhoons dropping below Category 4 thresholds by the time they approach Japan or other coastlines. Upcoming satellite passes, revised dynamical model runs, and updated JTWC advisories over the next 48–72 hours will clarify whether favorable conditions persist long enough to maintain major-typhoon strength at landfall.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於超級颱風海豚會以4級或更高強度登陸嗎？
超級颱風海豚會以4級或更高強度登陸嗎？
是
最新
最新
2026-08-16
是
最新
最新
2026-08-16
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Super Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 5 system with sustained winds near 155–160 mph and central pressure around 920 hPa in the western Pacific east of Wake Island, drives the closely balanced market odds. Its rapid intensification over warm waters has produced a well-defined eye, yet the storm faces a long northwestward track toward Asia that typically allows substantial weakening from increased wind shear, cooler sea-surface temperatures, and possible eyewall replacement cycles before any landfall. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency highlights model spread in both steering patterns and intensity forecasts, with historical analogs showing many super typhoons dropping below Category 4 thresholds by the time they approach Japan or other coastlines. Upcoming satellite passes, revised dynamical model runs, and updated JTWC advisories over the next 48–72 hours will clarify whether favorable conditions persist long enough to maintain major-typhoon strength at landfall.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
市場開放時間： Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
交易量
$0市場開放時間
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Super Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 5 system with sustained winds near 155–160 mph and central pressure around 920 hPa in the western Pacific east of Wake Island, drives the closely balanced market odds. Its rapid intensification over warm waters has produced a well-defined eye, yet the storm faces a long northwestward track toward Asia that typically allows substantial weakening from increased wind shear, cooler sea-surface temperatures, and possible eyewall replacement cycles before any landfall. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency highlights model spread in both steering patterns and intensity forecasts, with historical analogs showing many super typhoons dropping below Category 4 thresholds by the time they approach Japan or other coastlines. Upcoming satellite passes, revised dynamical model runs, and updated JTWC advisories over the next 48–72 hours will clarify whether favorable conditions persist long enough to maintain major-typhoon strength at landfall.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Super Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 5 system with sustained winds near 155–160 mph and central pressure around 920 hPa in the western Pacific east of Wake Island, drives the closely balanced market odds. Its rapid intensification over warm waters has produced a well-defined eye, yet the storm faces a long northwestward track toward Asia that typically allows substantial weakening from increased wind shear, cooler sea-surface temperatures, and possible eyewall replacement cycles before any landfall. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency highlights model spread in both steering patterns and intensity forecasts, with historical analogs showing many super typhoons dropping below Category 4 thresholds by the time they approach Japan or other coastlines. Upcoming satellite passes, revised dynamical model runs, and updated JTWC advisories over the next 48–72 hours will clarify whether favorable conditions persist long enough to maintain major-typhoon strength at landfall.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions