Tesla's stalled regulatory progress in California underpins the 89% market-implied probability against a robotaxi launch by June 30. The company holds only a basic DMV permit for supervised autonomous testing and has accumulated zero qualifying miles on public roads, far short of the 50,000-mile threshold required before applying for driverless deployment. New enforcement rules effective July 1 further complicate timelines, while Tesla has prioritized unsupervised Full Self-Driving operations in Texas and Arizona cities. With the deadline weeks away and no pending CPUC or DMV filings for commercial service, traders see minimal scope for approval in time.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$105,864 交易量
$105,864 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$105,864 交易量
$105,864 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla's stalled regulatory progress in California underpins the 89% market-implied probability against a robotaxi launch by June 30. The company holds only a basic DMV permit for supervised autonomous testing and has accumulated zero qualifying miles on public roads, far short of the 50,000-mile threshold required before applying for driverless deployment. New enforcement rules effective July 1 further complicate timelines, while Tesla has prioritized unsupervised Full Self-Driving operations in Texas and Arizona cities. With the deadline weeks away and no pending CPUC or DMV filings for commercial service, traders see minimal scope for approval in time.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ET
交易量
$105,864結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla's stalled regulatory progress in California underpins the 89% market-implied probability against a robotaxi launch by June 30. The company holds only a basic DMV permit for supervised autonomous testing and has accumulated zero qualifying miles on public roads, far short of the 50,000-mile threshold required before applying for driverless deployment. New enforcement rules effective July 1 further complicate timelines, while Tesla has prioritized unsupervised Full Self-Driving operations in Texas and Arizona cities. With the deadline weeks away and no pending CPUC or DMV filings for commercial service, traders see minimal scope for approval in time.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$105,864結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's stalled regulatory progress in California underpins the 89% market-implied probability against a robotaxi launch by June 30. The company holds only a basic DMV permit for supervised autonomous testing and has accumulated zero qualifying miles on public roads, far short of the 50,000-mile threshold required before applying for driverless deployment. New enforcement rules effective July 1 further complicate timelines, while Tesla has prioritized unsupervised Full Self-Driving operations in Texas and Arizona cities. With the deadline weeks away and no pending CPUC or DMV filings for commercial service, traders see minimal scope for approval in time.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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