Apple’s long-standing pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, combined with recent supply-chain confirmations and analyst reports, underpins the 98.2% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Multiple credible sources indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model are on track for a September 2026 keynote and availability, even as Apple shifts the standard iPhone 18 and lower-tier variants to spring 2027 to manage component constraints and prioritize premium revenue. Traders weigh this split strategy against Apple’s proven execution history, where minor timeline adjustments rarely derail overall series availability. While last-minute production issues or regulatory hurdles remain theoretically possible, the proximity to the expected fall event and absence of contrary official signals reinforce the strong consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
98% 機率
$172,877 交易量
$172,877 交易量
2026-12-31
是
98% 機率
$172,877 交易量
$172,877 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-standing pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, combined with recent supply-chain confirmations and analyst reports, underpins the 98.2% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Multiple credible sources indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model are on track for a September 2026 keynote and availability, even as Apple shifts the standard iPhone 18 and lower-tier variants to spring 2027 to manage component constraints and prioritize premium revenue. Traders weigh this split strategy against Apple’s proven execution history, where minor timeline adjustments rarely derail overall series availability. While last-minute production issues or regulatory hurdles remain theoretically possible, the proximity to the expected fall event and absence of contrary official signals reinforce the strong consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$172,877結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-standing pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, combined with recent supply-chain confirmations and analyst reports, underpins the 98.2% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Multiple credible sources indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model are on track for a September 2026 keynote and availability, even as Apple shifts the standard iPhone 18 and lower-tier variants to spring 2027 to manage component constraints and prioritize premium revenue. Traders weigh this split strategy against Apple’s proven execution history, where minor timeline adjustments rarely derail overall series availability. While last-minute production issues or regulatory hurdles remain theoretically possible, the proximity to the expected fall event and absence of contrary official signals reinforce the strong consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$172,877結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s long-standing pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, combined with recent supply-chain confirmations and analyst reports, underpins the 98.2% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Multiple credible sources indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model are on track for a September 2026 keynote and availability, even as Apple shifts the standard iPhone 18 and lower-tier variants to spring 2027 to manage component constraints and prioritize premium revenue. Traders weigh this split strategy against Apple’s proven execution history, where minor timeline adjustments rarely derail overall series availability. While last-minute production issues or regulatory hurdles remain theoretically possible, the proximity to the expected fall event and absence of contrary official signals reinforce the strong consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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