Apple’s decision to deprioritize a full Vision Pro successor in favor of smart glasses has driven the 96.9% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Recent Bloomberg reporting from September 2026 indicates the next-generation headset, codenamed N224, remains in early conceptual stages with four designs under review, none slated before late 2028 or 2029. The 2025 M5 chip refresh addressed minor hardware tweaks rather than delivering a redesigned model, while the cheaper Vision Air variant was canceled. Resources have shifted toward lighter wearable AI glasses targeted for late 2027, leaving the mixed-reality team’s efforts on life support amid weight, cost, and battery challenges. A surprise acceleration would require rapid resolution of those technical hurdles and a major internal reprioritization, both considered low-probability events at this stage.