Apple’s launch of the iPhone Duo foldable smartphone in October 2026, its first device in an entirely new form factor after years of development, serves as the main catalyst lifting the Yes side to a 64% market-implied probability. Reports also point to an October debut for a new smart-home hub with a touchscreen display and dedicated homeOS software, expanding beyond existing HomePod and Apple TV lines. These moves align with Apple’s accelerated 2026 hardware cadence under refreshed leadership, including OLED touchscreen MacBook Pro models that could represent further form-factor shifts. Traders remain cautious, however, because market resolution hinges on precise definitions of a “new product line” versus iterative updates, and any last-minute delays could alter the outcome before year-end.