Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability for "No" on Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven by the state's stringent DMV regulations requiring at least 50,000 supervised autonomous miles on public roads before driverless deployment permits can be sought—a threshold Tesla has yet to approach, with zero autonomous test miles reported under its permit as recently as February. While Tesla rolled out supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) chauffeur service in the San Francisco Bay Area on April 18 and expanded unsupervised robotaxi operations to Dallas and Houston, California's new DMV rules effective July 1—allowing police citations for autonomous vehicles—heighten scrutiny. With under six weeks remaining and no permit application filed, regulatory approval appears unattainable absent a surprise breakthrough.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$105,492 交易量
$105,492 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$105,492 交易量
$105,492 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability for "No" on Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven by the state's stringent DMV regulations requiring at least 50,000 supervised autonomous miles on public roads before driverless deployment permits can be sought—a threshold Tesla has yet to approach, with zero autonomous test miles reported under its permit as recently as February. While Tesla rolled out supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) chauffeur service in the San Francisco Bay Area on April 18 and expanded unsupervised robotaxi operations to Dallas and Houston, California's new DMV rules effective July 1—allowing police citations for autonomous vehicles—heighten scrutiny. With under six weeks remaining and no permit application filed, regulatory approval appears unattainable absent a surprise breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ET
交易量
$105,492結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability for "No" on Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven by the state's stringent DMV regulations requiring at least 50,000 supervised autonomous miles on public roads before driverless deployment permits can be sought—a threshold Tesla has yet to approach, with zero autonomous test miles reported under its permit as recently as February. While Tesla rolled out supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) chauffeur service in the San Francisco Bay Area on April 18 and expanded unsupervised robotaxi operations to Dallas and Houston, California's new DMV rules effective July 1—allowing police citations for autonomous vehicles—heighten scrutiny. With under six weeks remaining and no permit application filed, regulatory approval appears unattainable absent a surprise breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$105,492結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability for "No" on Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven by the state's stringent DMV regulations requiring at least 50,000 supervised autonomous miles on public roads before driverless deployment permits can be sought—a threshold Tesla has yet to approach, with zero autonomous test miles reported under its permit as recently as February. While Tesla rolled out supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) chauffeur service in the San Francisco Bay Area on April 18 and expanded unsupervised robotaxi operations to Dallas and Houston, California's new DMV rules effective July 1—allowing police citations for autonomous vehicles—heighten scrutiny. With under six weeks remaining and no permit application filed, regulatory approval appears unattainable absent a surprise breakthrough.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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