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icon for Doge-1月球任務會在2027年之前發射嗎？

Doge-1月球任務會在2027年之前發射嗎？

icon for Doge-1月球任務會在2027年之前發射嗎？

Doge-1月球任務會在2027年之前發射嗎？

是

8% 機率
Polymarket

$800,697 交易量

是

8% 機率
Polymarket

$800,697 交易量

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Traders assign a 92.1% implied probability against a Doge-1 launch before 2027 primarily because of the mission’s repeated postponements since its 2021 announcement and the absence of a firm slot on SpaceX’s crowded Falcon 9 manifest. The 40-kilogram CubeSat, intended for lunar orbit via rideshare deployment and trans-lunar injection, has shifted from an original early-2022 target to a tentative September 2026 window that remains unconfirmed amid prioritization of Starlink and crewed flights. Elon Musk’s February 2026 remark suggesting “maybe next year” further underscores timeline uncertainty. While integration of secondary payloads and narrow lunar alignment windows could still allow a surprise 2026 liftoff, SpaceX manifest updates expected in coming months represent the clearest near-term catalyst for any probability shift.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
交易量
$800,697
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Traders assign a 92.1% implied probability against a Doge-1 launch before 2027 primarily because of the mission’s repeated postponements since its 2021 announcement and the absence of a firm slot on SpaceX’s crowded Falcon 9 manifest. The 40-kilogram CubeSat, intended for lunar orbit via rideshare deployment and trans-lunar injection, has shifted from an original early-2022 target to a tentative September 2026 window that remains unconfirmed amid prioritization of Starlink and crewed flights. Elon Musk’s February 2026 remark suggesting “maybe next year” further underscores timeline uncertainty. While integration of secondary payloads and narrow lunar alignment windows could still allow a surprise 2026 liftoff, SpaceX manifest updates expected in coming months represent the clearest near-term catalyst for any probability shift.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
交易量
$800,697
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Doge-1月球任務會在2027年之前發射嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Doge-1 月球任務會在 2027 年之前發射嗎？" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Doge-1月球任務會在2027年之前發射嗎？" has generated $800.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Doge-1月球任務會在2027年之前發射嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Doge-1月球任務會在2027年之前發射嗎？" is "Doge-1 月球任務會在 2027 年之前發射嗎？" at just 8%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Doge-1月球任務會在2027年之前發射嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.