The overwhelming market consensus on "No" at 99.3% reflects the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) 2006 planet definition—requiring orbital clearance of its neighborhood—which Pluto has never satisfied, and the absence of any scheduled IAU review, vote, or new observational data that would prompt reclassification before June 30. No recent peer-reviewed studies or agency updates have challenged this framework, and historical precedent shows such taxonomic shifts occur only after years of deliberation. Traders recognize the near-zero probability of an unscheduled IAU assembly or sudden consensus reversal in the remaining days. The only realistic, albeit remote, path to a "Yes" outcome would require an unforeseen emergency IAU action driven by major new Kuiper Belt discoveries, which current monitoring shows no sign of emerging.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?
$59,381 交易量
$59,381 交易量
2026-06-30
$59,381 交易量
$59,381 交易量
2026-06-30
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.The overwhelming market consensus on "No" at 99.3% reflects the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) 2006 planet definition—requiring orbital clearance of its neighborhood—which Pluto has never satisfied, and the absence of any scheduled IAU review, vote, or new observational data that would prompt reclassification before June 30. No recent peer-reviewed studies or agency updates have challenged this framework, and historical precedent shows such taxonomic shifts occur only after years of deliberation. Traders recognize the near-zero probability of an unscheduled IAU assembly or sudden consensus reversal in the remaining days. The only realistic, albeit remote, path to a "Yes" outcome would require an unforeseen emergency IAU action driven by major new Kuiper Belt discoveries, which current monitoring shows no sign of emerging.
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
市場開放時間： Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$59,381結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.The overwhelming market consensus on "No" at 99.3% reflects the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) 2006 planet definition—requiring orbital clearance of its neighborhood—which Pluto has never satisfied, and the absence of any scheduled IAU review, vote, or new observational data that would prompt reclassification before June 30. No recent peer-reviewed studies or agency updates have challenged this framework, and historical precedent shows such taxonomic shifts occur only after years of deliberation. Traders recognize the near-zero probability of an unscheduled IAU assembly or sudden consensus reversal in the remaining days. The only realistic, albeit remote, path to a "Yes" outcome would require an unforeseen emergency IAU action driven by major new Kuiper Belt discoveries, which current monitoring shows no sign of emerging.
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
交易量
$59,381結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The overwhelming market consensus on "No" at 99.3% reflects the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) 2006 planet definition—requiring orbital clearance of its neighborhood—which Pluto has never satisfied, and the absence of any scheduled IAU review, vote, or new observational data that would prompt reclassification before June 30. No recent peer-reviewed studies or agency updates have challenged this framework, and historical precedent shows such taxonomic shifts occur only after years of deliberation. Traders recognize the near-zero probability of an unscheduled IAU assembly or sudden consensus reversal in the remaining days. The only realistic, albeit remote, path to a "Yes" outcome would require an unforeseen emergency IAU action driven by major new Kuiper Belt discoveries, which current monitoring shows no sign of emerging.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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