The 92% market-implied probability that Pluto will not be reclassified as a planet by June 30 reflects the absence of any active International Astronomical Union (IAU) proposal or vote on the horizon. The 2006 IAU definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood remains the scientific standard, and no new resolution has been formally submitted despite recent public comments from NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman favoring a revisit. Any shift would demand peer-reviewed papers, community consensus, and an IAU General Assembly process—steps that historically span years rather than weeks. While ongoing scientific discussion could eventually influence definitions, the tight deadline leaves insufficient time for the necessary observational data review or governance steps.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於冥王星在6月30日之前重新分類為一顆行星？
冥王星在6月30日之前重新分類為一顆行星？
是
$22,086 交易量
$22,086 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$22,086 交易量
$22,086 交易量
2026-06-30
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.The 92% market-implied probability that Pluto will not be reclassified as a planet by June 30 reflects the absence of any active International Astronomical Union (IAU) proposal or vote on the horizon. The 2006 IAU definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood remains the scientific standard, and no new resolution has been formally submitted despite recent public comments from NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman favoring a revisit. Any shift would demand peer-reviewed papers, community consensus, and an IAU General Assembly process—steps that historically span years rather than weeks. While ongoing scientific discussion could eventually influence definitions, the tight deadline leaves insufficient time for the necessary observational data review or governance steps.
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
市場開放時間： Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$22,086結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.The 92% market-implied probability that Pluto will not be reclassified as a planet by June 30 reflects the absence of any active International Astronomical Union (IAU) proposal or vote on the horizon. The 2006 IAU definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood remains the scientific standard, and no new resolution has been formally submitted despite recent public comments from NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman favoring a revisit. Any shift would demand peer-reviewed papers, community consensus, and an IAU General Assembly process—steps that historically span years rather than weeks. While ongoing scientific discussion could eventually influence definitions, the tight deadline leaves insufficient time for the necessary observational data review or governance steps.
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
交易量
$22,086結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 92% market-implied probability that Pluto will not be reclassified as a planet by June 30 reflects the absence of any active International Astronomical Union (IAU) proposal or vote on the horizon. The 2006 IAU definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood remains the scientific standard, and no new resolution has been formally submitted despite recent public comments from NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman favoring a revisit. Any shift would demand peer-reviewed papers, community consensus, and an IAU General Assembly process—steps that historically span years rather than weeks. While ongoing scientific discussion could eventually influence definitions, the tight deadline leaves insufficient time for the necessary observational data review or governance steps.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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