The Iranian regime's institutional resilience following leadership succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, combined with security forces' continued suppression of dissent, drives trader consensus that collapse remains highly improbable by May 31. Amid a fragile ceasefire and U.S. naval blockade imposing economic pressures, officials have prioritized resource management, import adjustments, and public messaging to avert shortages and unrest, while IRGC elements maintain order without evident defections. Recent statements emphasizing national unity and border security reflect efforts to stabilize internal dynamics despite infrastructure damage from prior strikes. Although escalation, leadership fractures, or sudden protest waves could theoretically shift probabilities in this narrow window, the absence of large-scale uprisings or verified internal collapse signals in recent weeks reinforces the current pricing as a reflection of structural barriers to rapid regime change.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$20,978,634 交易量
$20,978,634 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$20,978,634 交易量
$20,978,634 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional resilience following leadership succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, combined with security forces' continued suppression of dissent, drives trader consensus that collapse remains highly improbable by May 31. Amid a fragile ceasefire and U.S. naval blockade imposing economic pressures, officials have prioritized resource management, import adjustments, and public messaging to avert shortages and unrest, while IRGC elements maintain order without evident defections. Recent statements emphasizing national unity and border security reflect efforts to stabilize internal dynamics despite infrastructure damage from prior strikes. Although escalation, leadership fractures, or sudden protest waves could theoretically shift probabilities in this narrow window, the absence of large-scale uprisings or verified internal collapse signals in recent weeks reinforces the current pricing as a reflection of structural barriers to rapid regime change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
交易量
$20,978,634結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional resilience following leadership succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, combined with security forces' continued suppression of dissent, drives trader consensus that collapse remains highly improbable by May 31. Amid a fragile ceasefire and U.S. naval blockade imposing economic pressures, officials have prioritized resource management, import adjustments, and public messaging to avert shortages and unrest, while IRGC elements maintain order without evident defections. Recent statements emphasizing national unity and border security reflect efforts to stabilize internal dynamics despite infrastructure damage from prior strikes. Although escalation, leadership fractures, or sudden protest waves could theoretically shift probabilities in this narrow window, the absence of large-scale uprisings or verified internal collapse signals in recent weeks reinforces the current pricing as a reflection of structural barriers to rapid regime change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$20,979,190結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's institutional resilience following leadership succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, combined with security forces' continued suppression of dissent, drives trader consensus that collapse remains highly improbable by May 31. Amid a fragile ceasefire and U.S. naval blockade imposing economic pressures, officials have prioritized resource management, import adjustments, and public messaging to avert shortages and unrest, while IRGC elements maintain order without evident defections. Recent statements emphasizing national unity and border security reflect efforts to stabilize internal dynamics despite infrastructure damage from prior strikes. Although escalation, leadership fractures, or sudden protest waves could theoretically shift probabilities in this narrow window, the absence of large-scale uprisings or verified internal collapse signals in recent weeks reinforces the current pricing as a reflection of structural barriers to rapid regime change.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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