The high implied probability against a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026 reflects the absence of ongoing preparations for large-scale military action beyond the January 2026 special operations raid that captured Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro. Since then, U.S. Southern Command has emphasized targeted strikes on suspected drug vessels and expanded joint counternarcotics operations with partners in Ecuador, Colombia, and Honduras under designations of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. No comparable troop buildups, formal declarations, or congressional authorizations for new interventions have emerged, even amid periodic public statements about Cuba or Mexico. Ongoing commitments elsewhere, including Middle East operations, further constrain capacity for additional Western Hemisphere campaigns before year-end. Traders appear to view the current approach as calibrated pressure through alliances and limited strikes rather than state-on-state invasion.