Recent U.S. military actions in Latin America have centered on targeted operations rather than territorial occupation. The January 2026 raid capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, involved precision strikes and extraction but produced no sustained ground presence or control over land. Subsequent efforts have focused on joint counter-narcotics strikes with Ecuadorian forces, maritime interdictions in the Pacific and Caribbean, and sanctions pressure on Cuba, all framed by the administration around border security and drug interdiction. With roughly half of 2026 elapsed and no legislative or executive signals of broader invasion plans, trader consensus reflected in the 77 percent probability on “No” aligns with the narrow scope of these developments and the absence of conditions that historically precede full-scale interventions.