China's Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year—below the 4.5% consensus and the prior quarter's 5.0%—reflecting persistent weakness in domestic demand, subdued consumption, and a prolonged property downturn that offset resilient exports and manufacturing strength, particularly in AI-related sectors. First-half growth reached 4.7%, aligning with the official 4.5-5.0% annual target but highlighting supply-demand imbalances and limited scope for aggressive monetary easing amid earlier energy cost pressures. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% buckets for Q3, as the closely contested range hinges on the pace of fiscal stimulus following the late-July Politburo meeting and whether export momentum can sustain the quarterly outcome near the lower end of the target band amid ongoing structural headwinds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 39%
4.0-4.3% 13.7%
4.9-5.2% 2.4%
$26,934 交易量
$26,934 交易量
2026-10-20
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
14%
4.3-4.6%
49%
4.6-4.9%
39%
4.9-5.2%
2%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 39%
4.0-4.3% 13.7%
4.9-5.2% 2.4%
$26,934 交易量
$26,934 交易量
2026-10-20
<3.4%
$952 交易量
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$666 交易量
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 交易量
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,752 交易量
14%
4.3-4.6%
$10,019 交易量
49%
4.6-4.9%
$8,056 交易量
39%
4.9-5.2%
$2,841 交易量
2%
5.2-5.5%
$899 交易量
<1%
5.5%+
$1,040 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina's Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year—below the 4.5% consensus and the prior quarter's 5.0%—reflecting persistent weakness in domestic demand, subdued consumption, and a prolonged property downturn that offset resilient exports and manufacturing strength, particularly in AI-related sectors. First-half growth reached 4.7%, aligning with the official 4.5-5.0% annual target but highlighting supply-demand imbalances and limited scope for aggressive monetary easing amid earlier energy cost pressures. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% buckets for Q3, as the closely contested range hinges on the pace of fiscal stimulus following the late-July Politburo meeting and whether export momentum can sustain the quarterly outcome near the lower end of the target band amid ongoing structural headwinds.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
市场开放时间： Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
交易量
$26,934结束日期
2026-10-20市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina's Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year—below the 4.5% consensus and the prior quarter's 5.0%—reflecting persistent weakness in domestic demand, subdued consumption, and a prolonged property downturn that offset resilient exports and manufacturing strength, particularly in AI-related sectors. First-half growth reached 4.7%, aligning with the official 4.5-5.0% annual target but highlighting supply-demand imbalances and limited scope for aggressive monetary easing amid earlier energy cost pressures. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% buckets for Q3, as the closely contested range hinges on the pace of fiscal stimulus following the late-July Politburo meeting and whether export momentum can sustain the quarterly outcome near the lower end of the target band amid ongoing structural headwinds.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
交易量
$26,934结束日期
2026-10-20市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China's Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year—below the 4.5% consensus and the prior quarter's 5.0%—reflecting persistent weakness in domestic demand, subdued consumption, and a prolonged property downturn that offset resilient exports and manufacturing strength, particularly in AI-related sectors. First-half growth reached 4.7%, aligning with the official 4.5-5.0% annual target but highlighting supply-demand imbalances and limited scope for aggressive monetary easing amid earlier energy cost pressures. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% buckets for Q3, as the closely contested range hinges on the pace of fiscal stimulus following the late-July Politburo meeting and whether export momentum can sustain the quarterly outcome near the lower end of the target band amid ongoing structural headwinds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题