China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, down from 5.0% in Q1 and below consensus, has anchored Polymarket trader positioning around the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands for Q3, which together command roughly 86% implied probability. Weak household consumption and private investment, pressured by the ongoing property downturn and elevated energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions, have offset strength in manufacturing and exports, keeping first-half growth at 4.7% inside the official 4.5-5% annual target. Limited scope for aggressive monetary easing has reinforced expectations for incremental fiscal support. September activity indicators and the October Q3 release remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 38%
4.0-4.3% 15.3%
4.9-5.2% 2.4%
$26,904 交易量
$26,904 交易量
2026-10-20
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
15%
4.3-4.6%
49%
4.6-4.9%
38%
4.9-5.2%
2%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 38%
4.0-4.3% 15.3%
4.9-5.2% 2.4%
$26,904 交易量
$26,904 交易量
2026-10-20
<3.4%
$952 交易量
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$666 交易量
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 交易量
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,732 交易量
15%
4.3-4.6%
$10,019 交易量
49%
4.6-4.9%
$8,046 交易量
38%
4.9-5.2%
$2,841 交易量
2%
5.2-5.5%
$899 交易量
<1%
5.5%+
$1,040 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, down from 5.0% in Q1 and below consensus, has anchored Polymarket trader positioning around the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands for Q3, which together command roughly 86% implied probability. Weak household consumption and private investment, pressured by the ongoing property downturn and elevated energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions, have offset strength in manufacturing and exports, keeping first-half growth at 4.7% inside the official 4.5-5% annual target. Limited scope for aggressive monetary easing has reinforced expectations for incremental fiscal support. September activity indicators and the October Q3 release remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
市场开放时间： Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
交易量
$26,904结束日期
2026-10-20市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, down from 5.0% in Q1 and below consensus, has anchored Polymarket trader positioning around the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands for Q3, which together command roughly 86% implied probability. Weak household consumption and private investment, pressured by the ongoing property downturn and elevated energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions, have offset strength in manufacturing and exports, keeping first-half growth at 4.7% inside the official 4.5-5% annual target. Limited scope for aggressive monetary easing has reinforced expectations for incremental fiscal support. September activity indicators and the October Q3 release remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
交易量
$26,904结束日期
2026-10-20市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, down from 5.0% in Q1 and below consensus, has anchored Polymarket trader positioning around the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands for Q3, which together command roughly 86% implied probability. Weak household consumption and private investment, pressured by the ongoing property downturn and elevated energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions, have offset strength in manufacturing and exports, keeping first-half growth at 4.7% inside the official 4.5-5% annual target. Limited scope for aggressive monetary easing has reinforced expectations for incremental fiscal support. September activity indicators and the October Q3 release remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题