Recent Q1 2026 real GDP growth at a 2.0% annualized rate, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025 after the government shutdown ended, anchors trader sentiment for full-year 2026 outcomes. AI-fueled business investment and restored government spending drove the acceleration, yet softer consumer outlays at 1.6% and tariff-related headwinds introduce downside risks that keep the >2.5% and 1.5–2.0% ranges in a tight contest at 39.0% and 36.8% implied probability. Labor-market cooling, with unemployment near 4.4–4.5%, and elevated inflation readings further balance forecasts between modest expansion and potential sub-2% results. The second Q1 estimate on May 28 and upcoming FOMC communications on monetary policy will likely sharpen differentiation ahead of full-year resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2.0–2.5% 19%
低于0.5% 18.6%
0.5–1.0% 12.4%
1.0–1.5% 12.0%
$28,267 交易量
$28,267 交易量
2027-01-29
低于0.5%
19%
0.5–1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
47%
2.0–2.5%
22%
>2.5%
35%
2.0–2.5% 19%
低于0.5% 18.6%
0.5–1.0% 12.4%
1.0–1.5% 12.0%
$28,267 交易量
$28,267 交易量
2027-01-29
低于0.5%
$3,906 交易量
19%
0.5–1.0%
$15,332 交易量
12%
1.0–1.5%
$1,562 交易量
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,534 交易量
47%
2.0–2.5%
$1,846 交易量
22%
>2.5%
$4,088 交易量
35%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 real GDP growth at a 2.0% annualized rate, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025 after the government shutdown ended, anchors trader sentiment for full-year 2026 outcomes. AI-fueled business investment and restored government spending drove the acceleration, yet softer consumer outlays at 1.6% and tariff-related headwinds introduce downside risks that keep the >2.5% and 1.5–2.0% ranges in a tight contest at 39.0% and 36.8% implied probability. Labor-market cooling, with unemployment near 4.4–4.5%, and elevated inflation readings further balance forecasts between modest expansion and potential sub-2% results. The second Q1 estimate on May 28 and upcoming FOMC communications on monetary policy will likely sharpen differentiation ahead of full-year resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
交易量
$28,267结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 real GDP growth at a 2.0% annualized rate, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025 after the government shutdown ended, anchors trader sentiment for full-year 2026 outcomes. AI-fueled business investment and restored government spending drove the acceleration, yet softer consumer outlays at 1.6% and tariff-related headwinds introduce downside risks that keep the >2.5% and 1.5–2.0% ranges in a tight contest at 39.0% and 36.8% implied probability. Labor-market cooling, with unemployment near 4.4–4.5%, and elevated inflation readings further balance forecasts between modest expansion and potential sub-2% results. The second Q1 estimate on May 28 and upcoming FOMC communications on monetary policy will likely sharpen differentiation ahead of full-year resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$28,267结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q1 2026 real GDP growth at a 2.0% annualized rate, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025 after the government shutdown ended, anchors trader sentiment for full-year 2026 outcomes. AI-fueled business investment and restored government spending drove the acceleration, yet softer consumer outlays at 1.6% and tariff-related headwinds introduce downside risks that keep the >2.5% and 1.5–2.0% ranges in a tight contest at 39.0% and 36.8% implied probability. Labor-market cooling, with unemployment near 4.4–4.5%, and elevated inflation readings further balance forecasts between modest expansion and potential sub-2% results. The second Q1 estimate on May 28 and upcoming FOMC communications on monetary policy will likely sharpen differentiation ahead of full-year resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题