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经济·经济政策

2026年GDP增长

icon for 2026年GDP增长
经济·经济政策

2026年GDP增长

7月 30

1月 29, 2027

7月 30

1月 29, 2027

低于0.5% 39.6%

2.0–2.5% 19%

0.5–1.0% 12.4%

1.0–1.5% 12.1%

Polymarket

$28,267 交易量

低于0.5% 39.6%

2.0–2.5% 19%

0.5–1.0% 12.4%

1.0–1.5% 12.1%

Polymarket

$28,267 交易量

低于0.5%

$3,906 交易量

40%

0.5–1.0%

$15,332 交易量

12%

1.0–1.5%

$1,562 交易量

12%

1.5–2.0%

$1,534 交易量

43%

2.0–2.5%

$1,846 交易量

22%

>2.5%

$4,088 交易量

34%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP data showing a 2.0% annualized rebound from the prior quarter’s government-shutdown-induced slowdown has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.0% range, currently priced at a 37% market-implied probability. Offsetting support for higher outcomes above 2.5% (34% odds) stems from fiscal measures including the 2025 reconciliation act and sustained AI-driven capital expenditures, which several institutional forecasts project could lift full-year growth to 2.2–2.6%. Countervailing pressures from elevated energy prices, tariff pass-through effects, and slower labor-force growth due to immigration policy changes keep the two leading ranges in close contest, with upcoming second-quarter data and FOMC communications expected to clarify whether momentum sustains above or reverts below the 2% threshold.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$28,267
结束日期
2027-01-29
市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP data showing a 2.0% annualized rebound from the prior quarter’s government-shutdown-induced slowdown has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.0% range, currently priced at a 37% market-implied probability. Offsetting support for higher outcomes above 2.5% (34% odds) stems from fiscal measures including the 2025 reconciliation act and sustained AI-driven capital expenditures, which several institutional forecasts project could lift full-year growth to 2.2–2.6%. Countervailing pressures from elevated energy prices, tariff pass-through effects, and slower labor-force growth due to immigration policy changes keep the two leading ranges in close contest, with upcoming second-quarter data and FOMC communications expected to clarify whether momentum sustains above or reverts below the 2% threshold.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$28,267
结束日期
2027-01-29
市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年GDP增长"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 6 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"1.5–2.0%"，概率为 43%，其次是"低于0.5%"，概率为 40%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 43¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 43%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年GDP增长"已产生 $28.3K 的总交易量（自Nov 12, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年GDP增长"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 6 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年GDP增长"的当前领先者是"1.5–2.0%"，概率为 43%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 43%。紧随其后的结果是"低于0.5%"，概率为 40%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年GDP增长"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。