Recent NWS and model guidance for Chicago points to a cooler-than-normal air mass, persistent cloud cover, and showers limiting daytime heating, positioning mid-70s Fahrenheit as the most likely range for the August 2 high. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 76-77°F (43%) and 74-75°F (30%), well below the 83.8°F climatological normal. Ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential due to easterly flow and moisture, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning of August 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于芝加哥8月2日最高气温？
芝加哥8月2日最高气温？
76-77°F 43%
74-75°F 31%
78-79°F 20%
72-73°F 6%
最新
$10,415 交易量
最新
$10,415 交易量
2026-08-02
65°F或以下
1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
31%
76-77°F
43%
78-79°F
20%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
1%
84°F或更高
<1%
76-77°F 43%
74-75°F 31%
78-79°F 20%
72-73°F 6%
最新
$10,415 交易量
最新
$10,415 交易量
2026-08-02
65°F或以下
$490 交易量
1%
66-67°F
$476 交易量
<1%
68-69°F
$614 交易量
<1%
70-71°F
$386 交易量
2%
72-73°F
$317 交易量
6%
74-75°F
$1,932 交易量
31%
76-77°F
$3,651 交易量
43%
78-79°F
$318 交易量
20%
80-81°F
$1,740 交易量
2%
82-83°F
$129 交易量
1%
84°F或更高
$361 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NWS and model guidance for Chicago points to a cooler-than-normal air mass, persistent cloud cover, and showers limiting daytime heating, positioning mid-70s Fahrenheit as the most likely range for the August 2 high. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 76-77°F (43%) and 74-75°F (30%), well below the 83.8°F climatological normal. Ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential due to easterly flow and moisture, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning of August 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
交易量
$10,415结束日期
2026-08-02市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NWS and model guidance for Chicago points to a cooler-than-normal air mass, persistent cloud cover, and showers limiting daytime heating, positioning mid-70s Fahrenheit as the most likely range for the August 2 high. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 76-77°F (43%) and 74-75°F (30%), well below the 83.8°F climatological normal. Ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential due to easterly flow and moisture, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning of August 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10,415结束日期
2026-08-02市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETRecent NWS and model guidance for Chicago points to a cooler-than-normal air mass, persistent cloud cover, and showers limiting daytime heating, positioning mid-70s Fahrenheit as the most likely range for the August 2 high. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 76-77°F (43%) and 74-75°F (30%), well below the 83.8°F climatological normal. Ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential due to easterly flow and moisture, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning of August 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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