Recent Federal Reserve actions, including the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75%-4.00% target range and revised projections signaling one additional increase this year with policy on hold into 2027, represent the dominant driver of 5-year Treasury yield positioning. Persistent inflation, with core PCE forecasts elevated at 3.4% for 2026, has reinforced trader expectations for restrictive monetary policy and supported yields near 4.83%-4.86% as of mid-September. Resilient growth data and higher term premia have further capped downside moves, though upcoming CPI releases, labor reports, and the next FOMC meeting could shift market-implied rate paths if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,577 交易量
2026-12-30
低于4.50%
38%
低于4.45%
35%
低于4.40%
30%
低于4.35%
26%
低于4.30%
23%
低于4.25%
15%
低于4.20%
9%
低于4.10%
12%
低于4.00%
9%
$17,577 交易量
低于4.50%
$842 交易量
38%
低于4.45%
$1,901 交易量
35%
低于4.40%
$1,273 交易量
30%
低于4.35%
$2,704 交易量
26%
低于4.30%
$1,317 交易量
23%
低于4.25%
$363 交易量
15%
低于4.20%
$1,200 交易量
9%
低于4.10%
$6,497 交易量
12%
低于4.00%
$1,480 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent Federal Reserve actions, including the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75%-4.00% target range and revised projections signaling one additional increase this year with policy on hold into 2027, represent the dominant driver of 5-year Treasury yield positioning. Persistent inflation, with core PCE forecasts elevated at 3.4% for 2026, has reinforced trader expectations for restrictive monetary policy and supported yields near 4.83%-4.86% as of mid-September. Resilient growth data and higher term premia have further capped downside moves, though upcoming CPI releases, labor reports, and the next FOMC meeting could shift market-implied rate paths if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
交易量
$17,577结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent Federal Reserve actions, including the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75%-4.00% target range and revised projections signaling one additional increase this year with policy on hold into 2027, represent the dominant driver of 5-year Treasury yield positioning. Persistent inflation, with core PCE forecasts elevated at 3.4% for 2026, has reinforced trader expectations for restrictive monetary policy and supported yields near 4.83%-4.86% as of mid-September. Resilient growth data and higher term premia have further capped downside moves, though upcoming CPI releases, labor reports, and the next FOMC meeting could shift market-implied rate paths if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$17,577结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRecent Federal Reserve actions, including the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75%-4.00% target range and revised projections signaling one additional increase this year with policy on hold into 2027, represent the dominant driver of 5-year Treasury yield positioning. Persistent inflation, with core PCE forecasts elevated at 3.4% for 2026, has reinforced trader expectations for restrictive monetary policy and supported yields near 4.83%-4.86% as of mid-September. Resilient growth data and higher term premia have further capped downside moves, though upcoming CPI releases, labor reports, and the next FOMC meeting could shift market-implied rate paths if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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