The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75-4.00 percent—the first hike since 2023—reflects persistent inflation pressures, with median projections showing headline PCE at 3.7 percent for 2026 and core at 3.4 percent. This hawkish shift, supported by resilient growth and a stable 4.1 percent unemployment rate, has lifted the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.83-4.86 percent in recent sessions amid heavy supply and elevated term premiums. Market-implied odds now embed further tightening this year, with the next FOMC meetings and October CPI release as key near-term catalysts that could reinforce higher-for-longer policy and limit downside in intermediate yields through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,453 交易量
2026-12-30
低于4.50%
40%
低于4.45%
35%
低于4.40%
32%
低于4.35%
38%
低于4.30%
23%
低于4.25%
15%
低于4.20%
9%
低于4.10%
12%
低于4.00%
9%
$17,453 交易量
低于4.50%
$842 交易量
40%
低于4.45%
$1,798 交易量
35%
低于4.40%
$1,273 交易量
32%
低于4.35%
$2,683 交易量
38%
低于4.30%
$1,317 交易量
23%
低于4.25%
$363 交易量
15%
低于4.20%
$1,200 交易量
9%
低于4.10%
$6,497 交易量
12%
低于4.00%
$1,480 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75-4.00 percent—the first hike since 2023—reflects persistent inflation pressures, with median projections showing headline PCE at 3.7 percent for 2026 and core at 3.4 percent. This hawkish shift, supported by resilient growth and a stable 4.1 percent unemployment rate, has lifted the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.83-4.86 percent in recent sessions amid heavy supply and elevated term premiums. Market-implied odds now embed further tightening this year, with the next FOMC meetings and October CPI release as key near-term catalysts that could reinforce higher-for-longer policy and limit downside in intermediate yields through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
交易量
$17,453结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75-4.00 percent—the first hike since 2023—reflects persistent inflation pressures, with median projections showing headline PCE at 3.7 percent for 2026 and core at 3.4 percent. This hawkish shift, supported by resilient growth and a stable 4.1 percent unemployment rate, has lifted the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.83-4.86 percent in recent sessions amid heavy supply and elevated term premiums. Market-implied odds now embed further tightening this year, with the next FOMC meetings and October CPI release as key near-term catalysts that could reinforce higher-for-longer policy and limit downside in intermediate yields through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$17,453结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThe Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75-4.00 percent—the first hike since 2023—reflects persistent inflation pressures, with median projections showing headline PCE at 3.7 percent for 2026 and core at 3.4 percent. This hawkish shift, supported by resilient growth and a stable 4.1 percent unemployment rate, has lifted the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.83-4.86 percent in recent sessions amid heavy supply and elevated term premiums. Market-implied odds now embed further tightening this year, with the next FOMC meetings and October CPI release as key near-term catalysts that could reinforce higher-for-longer policy and limit downside in intermediate yields through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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