The Trump administration's Gold Card visa program, established through executive order in September 2025, has produced only one approved issuance as of late April 2026, according to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, amid ongoing background checks, processing delays, and legal challenges over expedited residency for $1 million contributions. Trader consensus heavily favors the 1-100 outcome at 68.8% because implementation hurdles, including Senate oversight questions and court scrutiny of the program's use of existing EB-1 and EB-2 categories, have limited actual sales far below earlier projections of thousands or billions in revenue. Recent developments, such as reports of just 165 processing fees paid despite hundreds of applications, reinforce skepticism about scaling volumes in the remainder of 2026, though policy adjustments or faster approvals could still shift the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.