Recent Houthi attacks, including the fatal August 11 strike on the Tihamah cargo ship in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have elevated security risks and insurance costs, driving volatility in weekly transit volumes amid broader Red Sea disruptions tied to regional conflicts. Trader consensus reflected in the tightly bunched market-implied odds—200-219 at 37.6%, followed closely by 220+, 180-199, and below 180—captures uncertainty over the pace and scale of vessel rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope versus any short-term stabilization. Key differentiators include the duration of heightened threats, daily traffic fluctuations around 30-40 vessels, and potential shifts in commodity carrier behavior, with resolution hinging on data from the full week of August 10.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于180-199 33%
220艘以上 17%
少于180 0
200-219 0
$12,247 交易量
$12,247 交易量
2026-08-16
少于180
31%
180-199
33%
200-219
29%
220艘以上
33%
180-199 33%
220艘以上 17%
少于180 0
200-219 0
$12,247 交易量
$12,247 交易量
2026-08-16
少于180
$6,149 交易量
31%
180-199
$2,022 交易量
33%
200-219
$812 交易量
29%
220艘以上
$3,264 交易量
33%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the fatal August 11 strike on the Tihamah cargo ship in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have elevated security risks and insurance costs, driving volatility in weekly transit volumes amid broader Red Sea disruptions tied to regional conflicts. Trader consensus reflected in the tightly bunched market-implied odds—200-219 at 37.6%, followed closely by 220+, 180-199, and below 180—captures uncertainty over the pace and scale of vessel rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope versus any short-term stabilization. Key differentiators include the duration of heightened threats, daily traffic fluctuations around 30-40 vessels, and potential shifts in commodity carrier behavior, with resolution hinging on data from the full week of August 10.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市场开放时间： Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
交易量
$12,247结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the fatal August 11 strike on the Tihamah cargo ship in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have elevated security risks and insurance costs, driving volatility in weekly transit volumes amid broader Red Sea disruptions tied to regional conflicts. Trader consensus reflected in the tightly bunched market-implied odds—200-219 at 37.6%, followed closely by 220+, 180-199, and below 180—captures uncertainty over the pace and scale of vessel rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope versus any short-term stabilization. Key differentiators include the duration of heightened threats, daily traffic fluctuations around 30-40 vessels, and potential shifts in commodity carrier behavior, with resolution hinging on data from the full week of August 10.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$12,247结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks, including the fatal August 11 strike on the Tihamah cargo ship in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have elevated security risks and insurance costs, driving volatility in weekly transit volumes amid broader Red Sea disruptions tied to regional conflicts. Trader consensus reflected in the tightly bunched market-implied odds—200-219 at 37.6%, followed closely by 220+, 180-199, and below 180—captures uncertainty over the pace and scale of vessel rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope versus any short-term stabilization. Key differentiators include the duration of heightened threats, daily traffic fluctuations around 30-40 vessels, and potential shifts in commodity carrier behavior, with resolution hinging on data from the full week of August 10.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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