Recent Houthi threats of a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, announced in mid-July 2026, triggered an immediate 24% drop in weekly transits to 269 vessels, followed by stabilization near 266. This reflects heightened rerouting, vessel turnarounds, and reduced mainstream tanker activity amid ongoing security risks, including a reported attack on the Tihamah in mid-August. Daily averages have hovered around 31–38 cargo ships, well below pre-2024 norms of ~75, producing implied weekly volumes clustered in the sub-200 range. Trader consensus, reflected in the 39.5% probability on fewer than 160 transits for the week of August 17, incorporates these persistent chokepoint frictions and the limited rebound seen in preliminary August data, while the 29.5% on 180–199 captures potential stabilization absent major new escalations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于<160 36%
180-199 30%
200+ 19%
160-179 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
<160
36%
160-179
12%
180-199
30%
200+
19%
<160 36%
180-199 30%
200+ 19%
160-179 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
<160
$2,196 交易量
36%
160-179
$1,445 交易量
12%
180-199
$1,311 交易量
30%
200+
$1,189 交易量
19%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, announced in mid-July 2026, triggered an immediate 24% drop in weekly transits to 269 vessels, followed by stabilization near 266. This reflects heightened rerouting, vessel turnarounds, and reduced mainstream tanker activity amid ongoing security risks, including a reported attack on the Tihamah in mid-August. Daily averages have hovered around 31–38 cargo ships, well below pre-2024 norms of ~75, producing implied weekly volumes clustered in the sub-200 range. Trader consensus, reflected in the 39.5% probability on fewer than 160 transits for the week of August 17, incorporates these persistent chokepoint frictions and the limited rebound seen in preliminary August data, while the 29.5% on 180–199 captures potential stabilization absent major new escalations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$6,141结束日期
2026-08-23市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, announced in mid-July 2026, triggered an immediate 24% drop in weekly transits to 269 vessels, followed by stabilization near 266. This reflects heightened rerouting, vessel turnarounds, and reduced mainstream tanker activity amid ongoing security risks, including a reported attack on the Tihamah in mid-August. Daily averages have hovered around 31–38 cargo ships, well below pre-2024 norms of ~75, producing implied weekly volumes clustered in the sub-200 range. Trader consensus, reflected in the 39.5% probability on fewer than 160 transits for the week of August 17, incorporates these persistent chokepoint frictions and the limited rebound seen in preliminary August data, while the 29.5% on 180–199 captures potential stabilization absent major new escalations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$6,141结束日期
2026-08-23市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats of a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, announced in mid-July 2026, triggered an immediate 24% drop in weekly transits to 269 vessels, followed by stabilization near 266. This reflects heightened rerouting, vessel turnarounds, and reduced mainstream tanker activity amid ongoing security risks, including a reported attack on the Tihamah in mid-August. Daily averages have hovered around 31–38 cargo ships, well below pre-2024 norms of ~75, producing implied weekly volumes clustered in the sub-200 range. Trader consensus, reflected in the 39.5% probability on fewer than 160 transits for the week of August 17, incorporates these persistent chokepoint frictions and the limited rebound seen in preliminary August data, while the 29.5% on 180–199 captures potential stabilization absent major new escalations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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