**Trader consensus heavily favors 180-199 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 24, 2026, at 98.9% implied probability.** This positioning reflects stabilized weekly volumes amid persistent Red Sea risks, with MarineTraffic data showing roughly 269 total crossings (up modestly week-over-week) and AIS-visible commercial traffic hovering near 223 in the prior period. Key drivers include the Houthi naval blockade on Saudi-linked tonnage since mid-July, which has suppressed laden tanker flows and prompted more vessels to transit dark (AIS off) to mitigate attack risk, alongside selective carrier returns to Suez routing that have lifted aggregate counts modestly but kept them well below pre-crisis baselines. War-risk premiums remain elevated, and Saudi crude exports via Yanbu have declined sharply. Realistic challenges to the 180-199 band would require either a sharp escalation in attacks widening the high-risk zone or a rapid de-escalation allowing full commercial normalization and higher laden transits.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于180-199 100.0%
160-179 2.4%
220+ 2.1%
<160 <1%
$20,280 交易量
$20,280 交易量
2026-08-30
<160
否
160-179
否
180-199
是
200-219
否
220+
否
180-199 100.0%
160-179 2.4%
220+ 2.1%
<160 <1%
$20,280 交易量
$20,280 交易量
2026-08-30
<160
$589 交易量
否
160-179
$910 交易量
否
180-199
$1,024 交易量
是
200-219
$14,888 交易量
否
220+
$2,870 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader consensus heavily favors 180-199 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 24, 2026, at 98.9% implied probability.** This positioning reflects stabilized weekly volumes amid persistent Red Sea risks, with MarineTraffic data showing roughly 269 total crossings (up modestly week-over-week) and AIS-visible commercial traffic hovering near 223 in the prior period. Key drivers include the Houthi naval blockade on Saudi-linked tonnage since mid-July, which has suppressed laden tanker flows and prompted more vessels to transit dark (AIS off) to mitigate attack risk, alongside selective carrier returns to Suez routing that have lifted aggregate counts modestly but kept them well below pre-crisis baselines. War-risk premiums remain elevated, and Saudi crude exports via Yanbu have declined sharply.
Realistic challenges to the 180-199 band would require either a sharp escalation in attacks widening the high-risk zone or a rapid de-escalation allowing full commercial normalization and higher laden transits.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市场开放时间： Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
交易量
$20,280结束日期
2026-08-30市场开放时间
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader consensus heavily favors 180-199 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 24, 2026, at 98.9% implied probability.** This positioning reflects stabilized weekly volumes amid persistent Red Sea risks, with MarineTraffic data showing roughly 269 total crossings (up modestly week-over-week) and AIS-visible commercial traffic hovering near 223 in the prior period. Key drivers include the Houthi naval blockade on Saudi-linked tonnage since mid-July, which has suppressed laden tanker flows and prompted more vessels to transit dark (AIS off) to mitigate attack risk, alongside selective carrier returns to Suez routing that have lifted aggregate counts modestly but kept them well below pre-crisis baselines. War-risk premiums remain elevated, and Saudi crude exports via Yanbu have declined sharply.
Realistic challenges to the 180-199 band would require either a sharp escalation in attacks widening the high-risk zone or a rapid de-escalation allowing full commercial normalization and higher laden transits.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$20,280结束日期
2026-08-30市场开放时间
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
**Trader consensus heavily favors 180-199 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 24, 2026, at 98.9% implied probability.** This positioning reflects stabilized weekly volumes amid persistent Red Sea risks, with MarineTraffic data showing roughly 269 total crossings (up modestly week-over-week) and AIS-visible commercial traffic hovering near 223 in the prior period. Key drivers include the Houthi naval blockade on Saudi-linked tonnage since mid-July, which has suppressed laden tanker flows and prompted more vessels to transit dark (AIS off) to mitigate attack risk, alongside selective carrier returns to Suez routing that have lifted aggregate counts modestly but kept them well below pre-crisis baselines. War-risk premiums remain elevated, and Saudi crude exports via Yanbu have declined sharply. Realistic challenges to the 180-199 band would require either a sharp escalation in attacks widening the high-risk zone or a rapid de-escalation allowing full commercial normalization and higher laden transits.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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