Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through IRGC strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels remain the central driver of trader positioning in this market, alongside proxy actions by Iran-backed Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Renewed maritime incidents in July 2026, including attacks that killed crew members on cargo vessels, followed the June memorandum of understanding and prompted U.S. responses and a reimposed naval blockade. As of early August, Oman-mediated talks have produced a lull in major incidents, though Iranian warnings on August 4 about targeting vessels altering approved routes sustain uncertainty over whether additional verified strikes will occur before the August 31 resolution window. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any fresh naval movements in the Gulf could still shift implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$156,373 交易量
2026-08-16
8月15日
3%
8月16日
11%
8月17日
23%
8月18日
14%
8月19日
15%
August 20
14%
8月21日
13%
8月22日
14%
August 23
14%
8月24日
14%
8月25日
15%
8月26日
14%
8月27日
12%
August 28
14%
8月29日
18%
8月30日
13%
8月31日
13%
$156,373 交易量
8月15日
$6,863 交易量
3%
8月16日
$3,243 交易量
11%
8月17日
$710 交易量
23%
8月18日
$514 交易量
14%
8月19日
$3,991 交易量
15%
August 20
$1,557 交易量
14%
8月21日
$1,259 交易量
13%
8月22日
$545 交易量
14%
August 23
$3,009 交易量
14%
8月24日
$6,259 交易量
14%
8月25日
$116 交易量
15%
8月26日
$768 交易量
14%
8月27日
$408 交易量
12%
August 28
$1,232 交易量
14%
8月29日
$2,024 交易量
18%
8月30日
$240 交易量
13%
8月31日
$1,767 交易量
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through IRGC strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels remain the central driver of trader positioning in this market, alongside proxy actions by Iran-backed Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Renewed maritime incidents in July 2026, including attacks that killed crew members on cargo vessels, followed the June memorandum of understanding and prompted U.S. responses and a reimposed naval blockade. As of early August, Oman-mediated talks have produced a lull in major incidents, though Iranian warnings on August 4 about targeting vessels altering approved routes sustain uncertainty over whether additional verified strikes will occur before the August 31 resolution window. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any fresh naval movements in the Gulf could still shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
交易量
$156,373结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through IRGC strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels remain the central driver of trader positioning in this market, alongside proxy actions by Iran-backed Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Renewed maritime incidents in July 2026, including attacks that killed crew members on cargo vessels, followed the June memorandum of understanding and prompted U.S. responses and a reimposed naval blockade. As of early August, Oman-mediated talks have produced a lull in major incidents, though Iranian warnings on August 4 about targeting vessels altering approved routes sustain uncertainty over whether additional verified strikes will occur before the August 31 resolution window. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any fresh naval movements in the Gulf could still shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
交易量
$156,373结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through IRGC strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels remain the central driver of trader positioning in this market, alongside proxy actions by Iran-backed Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Renewed maritime incidents in July 2026, including attacks that killed crew members on cargo vessels, followed the June memorandum of understanding and prompted U.S. responses and a reimposed naval blockade. As of early August, Oman-mediated talks have produced a lull in major incidents, though Iranian warnings on August 4 about targeting vessels altering approved routes sustain uncertainty over whether additional verified strikes will occur before the August 31 resolution window. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any fresh naval movements in the Gulf could still shift implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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