**Traders assign an 84% probability to “No” because RZP has run its own primaries, finalized an independent Knesset list headed by Bezalel Smotrich, and continues separate campaign preparations ahead of the October 27, 2026 election, with no agreement reached for a joint slate with Likud.** Recent polls show RZP struggling near or below the 3.25% threshold amid vote fragmentation from new right-wing entrants such as Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party, prompting occasional Likud discussions about reserving slots for Smotrich or broader right-bloc consolidation. However, RZP conducted and completed its central-committee primaries in July 2026, releasing its slate with figures including Orit Strock and Simcha Rothman, while Likud held its own primaries in mid-August and is finalizing a distinct national list. Netanyahu has publicly urged right-wing unity to avoid wasted votes, yet Otzma Yehudit has rejected merger talks with RZP, and no formal Likud-RZP alliance has materialized despite earlier speculation. With candidate lists due in early September and parties operating on parallel tracks, the absence of any confirmed joint-list deal underpins the current market consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
16% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-07
是
16% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-07
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Traders assign an 84% probability to “No” because RZP has run its own primaries, finalized an independent Knesset list headed by Bezalel Smotrich, and continues separate campaign preparations ahead of the October 27, 2026 election, with no agreement reached for a joint slate with Likud.**
Recent polls show RZP struggling near or below the 3.25% threshold amid vote fragmentation from new right-wing entrants such as Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party, prompting occasional Likud discussions about reserving slots for Smotrich or broader right-bloc consolidation. However, RZP conducted and completed its central-committee primaries in July 2026, releasing its slate with figures including Orit Strock and Simcha Rothman, while Likud held its own primaries in mid-August and is finalizing a distinct national list. Netanyahu has publicly urged right-wing unity to avoid wasted votes, yet Otzma Yehudit has rejected merger talks with RZP, and no formal Likud-RZP alliance has materialized despite earlier speculation. With candidate lists due in early September and parties operating on parallel tracks, the absence of any confirmed joint-list deal underpins the current market consensus.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
市场开放时间： Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$372结束日期
2026-09-07市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETElections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Traders assign an 84% probability to “No” because RZP has run its own primaries, finalized an independent Knesset list headed by Bezalel Smotrich, and continues separate campaign preparations ahead of the October 27, 2026 election, with no agreement reached for a joint slate with Likud.**
Recent polls show RZP struggling near or below the 3.25% threshold amid vote fragmentation from new right-wing entrants such as Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party, prompting occasional Likud discussions about reserving slots for Smotrich or broader right-bloc consolidation. However, RZP conducted and completed its central-committee primaries in July 2026, releasing its slate with figures including Orit Strock and Simcha Rothman, while Likud held its own primaries in mid-August and is finalizing a distinct national list. Netanyahu has publicly urged right-wing unity to avoid wasted votes, yet Otzma Yehudit has rejected merger talks with RZP, and no formal Likud-RZP alliance has materialized despite earlier speculation. With candidate lists due in early September and parties operating on parallel tracks, the absence of any confirmed joint-list deal underpins the current market consensus.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
交易量
$372结束日期
2026-09-07市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET**Traders assign an 84% probability to “No” because RZP has run its own primaries, finalized an independent Knesset list headed by Bezalel Smotrich, and continues separate campaign preparations ahead of the October 27, 2026 election, with no agreement reached for a joint slate with Likud.** Recent polls show RZP struggling near or below the 3.25% threshold amid vote fragmentation from new right-wing entrants such as Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party, prompting occasional Likud discussions about reserving slots for Smotrich or broader right-bloc consolidation. However, RZP conducted and completed its central-committee primaries in July 2026, releasing its slate with figures including Orit Strock and Simcha Rothman, while Likud held its own primaries in mid-August and is finalizing a distinct national list. Netanyahu has publicly urged right-wing unity to avoid wasted votes, yet Otzma Yehudit has rejected merger talks with RZP, and no formal Likud-RZP alliance has materialized despite earlier speculation. With candidate lists due in early September and parties operating on parallel tracks, the absence of any confirmed joint-list deal underpins the current market consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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