Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological agencies and global models highlight a moderating high-pressure system over eastern China, positioning the implied probability for a 15°C low in Jinan on September 16 as the market leader. Ensemble runs show overnight radiative cooling under clear skies likely bottoming near this threshold, consistent with mid-September climatology where daily minima average 16–18°C but dip lower with northerly flow. Key variables include model consensus on dew points and wind speeds that limit further drops, while 42% odds on 12–14°C reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day frontal passage. Updated observations from the China Meteorological Administration and next model cycles will clarify whether temperatures settle at or below these levels before resolution.