Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to an overnight low of 57–59°F in San Francisco on September 18, driven by persistent onshore westerly flow advecting cool, moist Pacific air after a mid-week storm system. This pattern has suppressed daytime heating and limited radiational cooling overnight, keeping minima near the September climatological average of 55.8°F while preventing deeper cooling that would favor the 54–55°F or lower bins. Clearing skies Friday night under light winds should allow temperatures to bottom out in the upper 50s, consistent with the 57.5% market-implied probability for 58–59°F. Updated model runs and any shift in marine-layer depth or wind speed before dawn will be the key variables that could nudge the final observed minimum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于旧金山9月18日最低气温？
旧金山9月18日最低气温？
58-59°F 65%
60-61°F 39%
62-63°F 37%
56-57华氏度 22%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
51°F或以下
5%
52-53华氏度
7%
54-55°F
11%
56-57华氏度
25%
58-59°F
57%
60-61°F
39%
62-63°F
37%
64-65°F
8%
66-67°F
11%
68-69°F
7%
70°F或更高
5%
58-59°F 65%
60-61°F 39%
62-63°F 37%
56-57华氏度 22%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
51°F或以下
$0 交易量
5%
52-53华氏度
$0 交易量
7%
54-55°F
$0 交易量
11%
56-57华氏度
$285 交易量
25%
58-59°F
$71 交易量
57%
60-61°F
$0 交易量
39%
62-63°F
$0 交易量
37%
64-65°F
$0 交易量
8%
66-67°F
$0 交易量
11%
68-69°F
$0 交易量
7%
70°F或更高
$0 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to an overnight low of 57–59°F in San Francisco on September 18, driven by persistent onshore westerly flow advecting cool, moist Pacific air after a mid-week storm system. This pattern has suppressed daytime heating and limited radiational cooling overnight, keeping minima near the September climatological average of 55.8°F while preventing deeper cooling that would favor the 54–55°F or lower bins. Clearing skies Friday night under light winds should allow temperatures to bottom out in the upper 50s, consistent with the 57.5% market-implied probability for 58–59°F. Updated model runs and any shift in marine-layer depth or wind speed before dawn will be the key variables that could nudge the final observed minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 16, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
交易量
$356结束日期
2026-09-18市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 7:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to an overnight low of 57–59°F in San Francisco on September 18, driven by persistent onshore westerly flow advecting cool, moist Pacific air after a mid-week storm system. This pattern has suppressed daytime heating and limited radiational cooling overnight, keeping minima near the September climatological average of 55.8°F while preventing deeper cooling that would favor the 54–55°F or lower bins. Clearing skies Friday night under light winds should allow temperatures to bottom out in the upper 50s, consistent with the 57.5% market-implied probability for 58–59°F. Updated model runs and any shift in marine-layer depth or wind speed before dawn will be the key variables that could nudge the final observed minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$356结束日期
2026-09-18市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 7:29 AM ETRecent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to an overnight low of 57–59°F in San Francisco on September 18, driven by persistent onshore westerly flow advecting cool, moist Pacific air after a mid-week storm system. This pattern has suppressed daytime heating and limited radiational cooling overnight, keeping minima near the September climatological average of 55.8°F while preventing deeper cooling that would favor the 54–55°F or lower bins. Clearing skies Friday night under light winds should allow temperatures to bottom out in the upper 50s, consistent with the 57.5% market-implied probability for 58–59°F. Updated model runs and any shift in marine-layer depth or wind speed before dawn will be the key variables that could nudge the final observed minimum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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